The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said “Nika” (international name: Toraji) rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a severe tropical storm while over the Philippine Sea at 2 a.m. on Sunday, Nov. 10.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Grace Castañeda said in a public weather forecast that Nika is expected to strengthen further and reach typhoon status later in the day as it continues to undergo “rapid intensification.”

As of 5 a.m., the severe tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour (kph) near its center and gusts reaching 125 kph.

Nika will be classified as a typhoon once its maximum wind speed reaches between 118 and 184 kph.

Castañeda said Nika may reach its peak intensity before making landfall over Isabela or Aurora on Monday, Nov. 11. At 4 a.m., the center of the storm was located 690 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon.

“Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or within the forecast confidence cone,” she added.

After landfall, Nika will traverse northern and central Luzon until Tuesday morning, Nov. 12.

Heavy rains, strong winds

Castañeda warned that heavy rains and strong winds will begin affecting parts of Luzon starting Sunday.

Isabela and Aurora will experience moderate to intense rainfall, which could lead to flooding or landslides. Strong winds in these areas also pose a moderate to severe threat to lives and properties. 

Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rainfall, combined with strong winds, poses a minor to moderate in Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.

PAGASA said the trough or extension of Nika may also bring light to heavy rains and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas, Cordillera Administrative Region, Bulacan, and the rest of Cagayan Valley and Bicol Region.

The rest of the country is expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated rain showers due to localized thunderstorms.

Wind warnings

In preparation for the approaching storm, PAGASA has raised Signal No. 2 over the southeastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue) and the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan).

Signal No. 1 is in effect over the southern portion of Cagaya (Tuguegarao City, Peñablanca, Enrile, Solana, Iguig), the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, southeastern portion of Kalinga (City of Tabuk, Rizal, Tanudan), eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis, Natonin, Barlig), Ifugao, eastern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Tayug, Natividad, San Quintin, Umingan), the rest of Aurora, Nueva Ecija, northeastern portion of Pampanga (Candaba, Arayat), northern and eastern portions of Bulacan (Norzagaray, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, San Rafael, Doña Remedios Trinidad, Angat), eastern portion of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, San Francisco, Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, General Nakar, including Polillo Islands), Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and the northeastern portion of Albay (Malinao, Tiwi, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Rapu-Rapu).

PAGASA warned that the highest wind warning that may be raised during the passage of Nika is Signal No. 4.

Storm surge, gale warnings

The public is warned of a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge in the next 48 hours for low-lying or exposed coastal areas, including Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, (including Babuyan Islands), Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon (including Polillo Islands), Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, and Catanduanes.

Coastal hazards also include very rough seas (up to 4.5 meters) over the eastern seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora and the northern seaboard of Camarines Norte. 

PAGASA said sea travel is risky, and all mariners are urged to stay in port or seek shelter. 

Rough seas are also expected over the following coastal waters: Up to 4 meters along the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands and the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; up to 3.5 meters along the northern seaboard of Catanduanes; and up to 3 meters along the remaining seaboard of Aurora, and the eastern seaboards of Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, northern Quezon, and Catanduanes. 

PAGASA advised mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, not to venture out to sea under these conditions, particularly if they are inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.

Moderate seas are also expected over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 meters along the seaboards of Batanes and Ilocos Norte, the remaining seaboards of Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan, the eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, and Sorsogon, the remaining seaboards of Catanduanes, and the northern seaboard of Northern Samar; and up to 2 meters along the remaining western and eastern seaboards of Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas and Dinagat Islands. 

Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

Another potential cyclone

Moreover, Castañeda said PAGASA is closely monitoring the low-pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) for its potential development into another tropical cyclone.

The LPA was located 2,365 km east of northeastern Mindanao on Sunday morning.

There is a high chance that the LPA will develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours and could enter PAR by early Tuesday, Castañeda said.

Although the LPA is currently moving towards Cagayan Valley, its exact track remains uncertain, she added.

The next tropical cyclone inside the PAR will be named “Ofel.”