The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Tropical Storm “Marce” (international name: Yinxing) has intensified into a severe tropical storm, prompting the issuance of Wind Signal No. 1 in five areas across northern Luzon on Monday evening, Nov. 4.

Marce now has maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour (kph) near its center and gusts reaching 125 kph.

As of 10 p.m., the center of the severe tropical storm was located 590 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes, or 715 kilometers east of Daet, Camarines Norte.

In its 11 p.m. bulletin, PAGASA raised Signal No. 1 in Batanes, northern and eastern portions of Cagayan (Camalaniugan, Lal-Lo, Pamplona, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Santa Ana, Claveria, Gattaran, Peñablanca, Lasam, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Allacapan, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Alcala, Amulung, Iguig, including Babuyan Islands), eastern portion of Isabela (Maconacon, San Pablo, Divilacan, Palanan, Dinapigue), northern portion of Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan, Flora, Pudtol), and northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Dumalneg, Adams, Bangui, Burgos, Pasuquin, Vintar).

PAGASA said the highest wind warning that could be issued during the passage of Marce is Signal No. 4, as it may reach typhoon status by Tuesday, Nov. 5.

Heavy rainfall is also expected to affect parts of northern Luzon starting Tuesday.

Landfall scenario

Currently moving northwestward at 35 kph, Marce is expected to maintain a general west-northwest trajectory until Wednesday morning, Nov. 6, before decelerating and turning westward over the Philippine Sea, east of extreme northern Luzon.

The latest forecast shows that Marce is likely to make landfall over Babuyan Islands or mainland northern Cagayan on Thursday evening, Nov. 7, or early Friday morning, Nov. 8.

However, uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the high-pressure area north of Marce, which could shift the potential landfall location to mainland Cagayan or Isabela.