Following 16 cyclones this year, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said one or two more tropical cyclones could form or enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) before the year ends.
The next tropical cyclones on PAGASA’s list are named Querubin and Romina.
In a climate forum on Wednesday, Nov. 20, PAGASA Weather Specialist Joanne Mae Adelino explained the five common tropical cyclone tracks within the PAR during December.
She emphasized that cyclones in the last quarter of the year tend to make landfall, cross the country, and intensify.
First, cyclones may form in the western Pacific, enter PAR, recurve towards the eastern part of PAR without making landfall, and then move towards Japan.
Second, cyclones could enter PAR, recurve before making landfall, and head towards the northeastern part of PAR before moving towards Japan.
Third, cyclones may make landfall in Northern or Central Luzon, then move westward towards Hong Kong after exiting the landmass.
Fourth, cyclones can make landfall in Southern Luzon or Northern Visayas, and then move westward towards Vietnam.
Fifth, cyclones may make landfall in Southern Visayas or Northern Mindanao and then move westward towards Thailand.
Adelino said that based on PAGASA’s tropical cyclone threat potential forecast for Nov. 20 to Dec. 3, the formation of a tropical cyclone is “unlikely” in Week 1 but “likely” in Week 2, due to a “low to moderate” probability of a tropical cyclone-like vortex or circulation forming into a tropical cyclone.