After enduring six successive strong cyclones, the Philippines is finally experiencing a much-needed break, with calmer weather conditions prevailing across the country.
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Weather Specialist Grace Castañeda said on Monday, Nov. 18, that as Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi) moves farther away from the country’s area of responsibility, weather conditions are expected to gradually improve across most of Luzon and other parts of the Philippines.
Pepito is expected to exit the Philippine area of responsibility between noon and afternoon on Monday.
In just one month, the Philippines was struck by a series of powerful tropical cyclones: Severe Tropical Storm Kristine (international name: Trami, Oct. 21-25), Super Typhoon Leon (Kong-rey, Oct. 27-Nov. 1), Typhoon Marce (Yinxing, Nov. 4-Nov. 8), Typhoon Nika (Toraji, Nov. 9-12), Super Typhoon Ofel (Usagi, Nov. 12-15), and Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi, Nov. 14-18).
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/11/15/strong-cyclones-could-be-linked-to-climate-change-climate-expert-says
PAGASA Weather Specialist Junie Ruiz reassured the public that the chances of another cyclone forming immediately after Typhoon Pepito are low.
Based on the weather agency’s two-week tropical cyclone threat potential forecast from Nov. 18 to Dec. 1, tropical cyclone formation is unlikely.
However, Ruiz said a tropical cyclone-like vortex or circulation may develop during the second week of the forecast period. Despite this, the likelihood of it developing into a tropical cyclone remains low.
“Sa second week ng forecast period, hindi pa natin pwede i-ignore na ang tropical cyclone-like vortex ay pwede magingbagyo kung maging favorable sa tropical cyclone formation ang environmental conditions (In the second week of the forecast period, we cannot ignore the possibility that the tropical cyclone-like vortex could develop into a storm if environmental conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation),” he explained.
Ruiz added that PAGASA updates its tropical cyclone threat potential forecast three times a week—Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays—to keep the public informed.
He added that PAGASA is continuously monitoring the situation, particularly due to the current La Niña-like conditions.
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/11/10/cyclones-associated-with-la-nina
In its climate outlook for November, PAGASA said that cool El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions persist across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Based on the combination of climate models and expert assessments, there is a 71 percent likelihood of short-lived La Niña or La Niña-like conditions developing during the November-December-January period, with the possibility of these conditions continuing into the first quarter of 2025.
PAGASA said La Niña or La Niña-like conditions typically increase the likelihood of above-normal rainfall, which could lead to significant impacts, such as heavy rains, flooding, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides in highly vulnerable areas.
In addition, PAGASA’s historical data shows that one or two tropical cyclones may develop or enter the PAR in December, with most of these cyclones making landfall or crossing the country.
https://mb.com.ph/2024/10/28/records-show-stronger-landfalling-cyclones-in-the-last-quarter