Super Typhoon “Ofel” (international name: Usagi) maintained its strength as it nears Cagayan Valley, with landfall expected over Cagayan or Isabela on Thursday afternoon, Nov. 14, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
In its 11 a.m. bulletin, PAGASA said the center of Ofel was located over the coastal waters of Divilacan, Isabela, or 135 kilometers northeast of Echague, Isabela.
The super typhoon is moving west-northwestward at 15 kilometers per hour (kph) while packing maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near its center and gusts reaching 230 kph.
After landfall, the super typhoon will likely emerge over the Babuyan Channel Thursday evening, potentially making another landfall or close approach to Babuyan Islands.
PAGASA warned that, regardless of the exact landfall location, hazardous conditions could still affect areas outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone.
Destructive winds
As Ofel approaches, Signal No. 5 has been raised over the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga), where extreme impacts from typhoon-force winds are expected.
Signal No. 4 is raised over Babuyan Islands, northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca) and northeastern Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan), where “significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds” are likely.
Signal No. 3 is in effect over Batanes, the rest of Cagayan, northern, central, and southeastern portions of Isabela (San Pablo, Delfin Albano, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, San Mariano, Dinapigue), northern Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol, Calanasan, Kabugao), and northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg), with “moderate to significant impacts” from storm-force winds expected.
Meanwhile, Signal No. 2 is up over the western and southern portions of Isabela (Quezon, Quirino, Mallig, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, City of Cauayan, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Roxas, Angadanan, Alicia, San Guillermo, Echague, Jones, San Agustin, San Mateo, San Isidro), the northeastern portion of Quirino (Maddela), the rest of Apayao, Kalinga, northeastern part of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay, Daguioman), the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis), eastern Ifugao (Alfonso Lista), the rest of Ilocos Norte, and northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag), where gale-force winds could cause “minor to moderate impacts.”
Areas under Signal No. 1 are the rest of Isabela, the rest of Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Ifugao, the rest of Abra, northern Benguet (Bokod, Mankayan, Kapangan, Atok, Kabayan, Kibungan, Bakun, Buguias, Tublay), Ilocos Sur, northern part of La Union (Luna, Sudipen, Bangar, Santol, San Gabriel, Bagulin, Bacnotan, Balaoan, San Juan), and northern and central portions of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler, San Luis), with “minimal to minor impacts” from strong winds.
Flood, landslide risks
PAGASA said intense to torrential rainfall (over 200 millimeters) may affect Cagayan and Isabela in the next 24 hours.
Heavy to intense rains (100 to 200 millimeters) could also affect Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Quirino, and Aurora, while moderate to heavy rainfall (50 to 100 millimeters) may prevail over Abra, Ifugao, and Nueva Vizcaya.
The weather bureau warned that these conditions could lead to flooding and landslides, particularly in areas highly susceptible to such hazards and those with significant previous rainfall.