The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned the northern part of Luzon to brace for a new round of heavy rainfall and strong winds as Tropical Cyclone “Ofel” (international name: Usagi) intensified into a typhoon, threatening areas still recovering from previous storms.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Aldczar Aurelio said Ofel reached typhoon strength at 2 a.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 13. The typhoon is now packing maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour (kph) near its center and gusts reaching 150 kph.

Aurelio added that the typhoon is moving westward, bringing it closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon.

As of 4 a.m., the center of Ofel was located 475 kilometers east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, or 595 kilometers east of Daet, Camarines Norte.

PAGASA said the typhoon will continue to move west-northwest to northwestward over the Philippine Sea before landfall along the eastern coast of Cagayan or Isabela on Thursday afternoon, Nov. 14.

While the exact landfall point remains uncertain, PAGASA warned that areas outside the forecast cone could still experience significant hazards, particularly along coastal waters and in regions that may be affected by the typhoon’s outer bands.

The weather bureau said the track of Ofel could still shift in the coming days, with two possible scenarios: a west-northwestward path further south of the current forecast or a recurving track that would bring the typhoon offshore of Northern Luzon.

PAGASA said Ofel will continue to intensify over the next 24 hours and could make landfall at its peak intensity.

Signal No. 4 possible

As of the 5 a.m. bulletin, PAGASA has raised Signal No. 1 over Cagayan (including Babuyan Islands), northern and central portions of Isabela (Maconacon, San Pablo, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Divilacan, Palanan, Santo Tomas, Alicia, San Mateo, Aurora, Quezon, San Mariano, Naguilian, Dinapigue, Roxas, San Guillermo, Luna, Delfin Albano, Cauayan City, Ilagan City, Angadanan, Benito Soliven, Tumauini, Reina Mercedes, San Manuel, Cabatuan, Quirino, Gamu, Mallig, Burgos), Apayao, eastern Kalinga (Rizal, City of Tabuk, Pinukpuk), easternmost part of Mountain Province (Paracelis), and easternmost portion of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista).

Areas under Signal No. 1 may experience “minimal to minor impacts” from strong winds.

The highest wind warning that may be raised during the passage of Ofel is Signal No. 4.

PAGASA also warned of intense to moderate to heavy rains (50 to 100 millimeters over Isabela and Cagayan on Wednesday, which will become intense to torrential rainfall (over 200 millimeters) by Thursday.

On Thursday, heavy to intense rains (100 to 200 millimeters) could also affect Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Abra, Batanes, Kalinga, Mountain Province, and Ifugao, while moderate to heavy rainfall (50 to 100 millimeters) may prevail over Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Quirino, and Ilocos Sur.

These conditions could lead to flooding and landslides, particularly in areas highly susceptible to such hazards and those with significant previous rainfall, PAGASA warned.

Storm Man-yi

Meanwhile, PAGASA is also monitoring Tropical Storm “Man-yi,” currently outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR), but expected to enter the PAR in the coming days.

Once inside, it will be named “Pepito.”

As of 3 a.m. on Wednesday, the center of Man-yi was located 2,210 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas, with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph and gusts reaching 90 kph.

The storm is moving west-northwest at 30 kph.

PAGASA has not yet released any details regarding the track of tropical storm Man-yi once it enters the PAR.