UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
The stunning electoral victory of Donald J. Trump has left the world in a cloud of anxiety and nervous speculation. In his campaign speeches, he kept emphasizing “America First” and “Make America Great Again” (MAGA). It will usher in a new age of isolationism not unlike that seen in the early 1910s and in the 1930s.
A review of these eras will show that an inward-looking America is not a guarantee that it will not be drawn into war. No matter if Trump will no longer support Ukraine in its defense against Russia, or refuse to defend South Korea or Taiwan, events have a way of drawing the US into conflicts through no fault of its own. Looking at it another way, America’s refusal to involve itself in wars actually emboldened other countries into actions affecting the US such that it eventually, if reluctantly, entered the fray.
When World War I broke out in 1914, the United States of America declared itself neutral, a continuation of its 19th century policy of isolationism. Even the sinking of the civilian ship Lusitania, in which 128 Americans died, among the 1,200 civilians on board who perished, failed to stir America into action. The straw that broke the camel’s back was the message from Germany’s Foreign Minister to the German ambassador to Mexico promising to help Mexico recover the lands it lost to the US during the Mexican-American War (1846-1848) if Mexico allied itself with Germany. That finally led the US to declare a state of war against Germany.
Of interest is that the Mexican-American War stemmed from the American annexation of Texas, which was Mexican territory then. American expansionist policies led to the war, which in turn, led to its acquisition of over 1,300,000 square kilometers of land including parts of California, Texas, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, and western Colorado. These territories were “bought” for $15 million after it defeated Mexico. When the Spanish-American War broke out in 1898, the Philippines was ceded to America for the sum of $20 million, even though the Philippines had declared independence from Spain.
It can be seen here that the US was not the epitome of a peace-loving nation, resorting to war in order to expand its territory at the expense of others.
In the 1930s, American isolationism was also the prevailing sentiment, reinforced by the trauma of the hundreds of thousands of Americans killed or injured during World War I. Not even Hitler’s rise to power nor the Japanese expansionism in Asia could provoke America’s entry into World War II. That is, until the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor in 1941 dragged it into the war that finally ended with the Axis Powers’ defeat in 1945.
The incoming 47th President of the United States of America, has made known his fondness for the likes of Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, calling the latter his “close comrade.” With the Russian invasion of Ukraine entering its third year in three months’ time, and North Korean troops fighting with the Russians in the war, cozying up to Putin may seem like an encouragement to grab more territory.
Trump will likely impose higher tariffs on Chinese products, but he will not likely bother to defend the Philippines in its conflict with China in the West Philippine Sea, nor lift a finger in response to a possible invasion of Taiwan that China considers as its own. South Korea will have to rely on its own military to fight North Korea should the latter invade, which is not far-fetched considering its constant saber-rattling and missile launches.
Will there be further withdrawal of American troops on foreign soil? Trump has said that the US should not be paying for the defense of other countries, so, he might withdraw American troops in vital areas. There are 10 countries where US troops are stationed, among them, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy, UK, Bahrain, Spain, Australia, and of course, the Philippines. They number over 168,000 active duty troops and around 60,000 civilians and reserves. That’s a significant drain on the American treasury that can be spent on domestic concerns like its crumbling infrastructure of roads, bridges and railroads, so Trump might argue.
The worse possible scenario will be Trump withdrawing America from the NATO alliance. It will definitely embolden Putin into grabbing more European territory, which might ultimately provoke the USA into a World War III.
It has been said that when America sneezes, the world catches a cold. We could all be coughing and sniffling, or worse, be in intensive care, by the time Trump is finished with his presidency. Four years is a mighty long time to spend in constant dread and anxiety.