The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the low-pressure area (LPA) monitored near the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) has developed into a tropical depression before dawn on Monday, Nov. 11.

The tropical depression formed just as Typhoon “Nika” (international name: Toraji) is expected to make landfall in Luzon on Monday morning.

READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/11/11/signal-no-4-raised-as-nika-intensifies-into-a-typhoon

PAGASA said the tropical depression was located 1,620 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas at 4 a.m. It is moving west-northwest at 35 kilometers per hour (kph) and is expected to enter the PAR on Tuesday, Nov. 12.

Once inside the PAR, the tropical depression will be named “Ofel,” making it the 15th tropical cyclone of 2024.

Based on PAGASA’s 5 a.m. bulletin, Nika has maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) near its center and gusts reaching 55 kph.

It is expected to intensify into a severe tropical storm within the next 48 hours and may reach its peak intensity as a severe storm before landfall over Northern or Central Luzon on Thursday evening, Nov. 14, or early Friday morning, Nov. 15.

However, PAGASA said the possibility of the tropical cyclone intensifying into a typhoon has not been ruled out.

PAGASA also pointed out that regardless of the exact landfall location, areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone could still experience significant hazards. 

The track of the storm may shift within the forecast confidence cone, particularly in the fourth and fifth days of the forecast period, it added.