There is growing uncertainty in the market regarding the direction the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will take in its last two policy meetings of the year, scheduled for Nov. 14 and Dec. 16.

Will the BSP implement another rate cut in line with the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will reduce rates by a quarter of a percentage point next week? Or will the monetary authorities decide to pause?

These questions are causing concern among market players.

The agitation stems from the billions of pesos in damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Kristine to agriculture and infrastructure, leading to supply bottlenecks that would elevate inflation, a very crucial macroeconomic variable influencing monetary policy.

As I scribble this piece with the month of October drawing to a close, the latest buzzword I’m hearing in banking circles is "reset." The sentiment has changed, altogether.

Yes Virginia, many financial analysts, market movers, and players are doing readjustments, moving from a dovish to a hawkish stance. The dovish approach is fading as attention turns to upcoming events both here and abroad.

Offshore, people are closely watching the results of the US presidential election on Tuesday, Nov. 5, and the actions the US Fed will take on Thursday, Nov. 7.

I share the views of one of my favorite financial analysts, Jonas Ravelas, who believes we may need to prepare for a reset, especially with the possibility of Donald Trump’s return, as indicated by recent surveys that could change the economic landscape moving forward.

Onshore, alongside October's inflation figures, we are also seeing fluctuations in the local currency. Inflation expectation for October is an uptick from the unusually low rate of 1.9 percent recorded in September, the lowest ever recorded in 54 months.

Currency traders believe that the strengthening of the dollar could persist, with the peso hovering around P58, which could be a major determinant of the BSP policy direction.

The reset will be highlighted by the movements in the peso-dollar exchange rate. Note that the yield on the 10-year US Treasuries jumped to 4.2 percent from 3.75 percent, following the BSP's 50 basis points reduction.

Considering all these factors, Andro Leo Beltran, First Metro Securities Vice President, affirmed that a dovish sentiment is increasingly prevalent, given its potential impact on economic stability and consumer confidence.

While maintaining prudence around inflationary pressures, the government should focus on providing accessible financing options for businesses and individuals who are rebuilding in the affected areas. Efforts should prioritize economic resilience and recovery, with a strong emphasis on flood control measures.

Although the market appears to be unfazed, Beltran maintains that “it's still best to look at the long-term picture, especially as the Philippines is in the Pacific Ring of Fire - an area frequented by storms and earthquakes.”

Here’s praying that Leon will not be as devastating as Kristine.

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