Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 is still hoisted over Batanes and Babuyan Islands as Typhoon “Julian” (international name “Krathon”) remains almost stationary, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Wednesday evening, Oct. 2.
As of 10 p.m., the center of Julian was located 270 kilometers west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes, with maximum sustained winds of 155 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 190 kph.
Only scattered rains and thunderstorms may prevail over Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon over the next 24 hours.
PAGASA said the typhoon may move northeastward toward the southwestern coast of Taiwan, where it is expected to make landfall on Thursday morning, Oct. 3, after re-entering the northwestern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
It noted that, despite its re-entry into the PAR, no direct effects are anticipated over most of the country except for Batanes, which is relatively close to Taiwan.
PAGASA explained that due to a combination of incoming northeasterly wind flow over the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait, and lower ocean heat content in its vicinity—related to the upwelling of cooler waters caused by its slow movement for nearly two days—Julian may continue to weaken.
After landfall, it may move erratically over Taiwan while rapidly weakening due to land interaction.
Julian may emerge over the Taiwan Strait on Friday evening, Oct. 4, as a tropical depression, where it is expected to move west-southwestward and become a remnant low.
This weather disturbance may exit the PAR by Friday.