The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Wednesday, Sept. 25 that the southwest monsoon, or “habagat,” could end sooner than usual this year, paving the way for the arrival of the northeast monsoon, or “amihan” by the second half of next month.
During the PAGASA climate forum, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Liza Solis said the analysis shows a possible seasonal transition from second half of October to first half of November.
Solis pointed out that amihan usually begins between the last week of October and the first week of November.
PAGASA experts cited early signs of this shift, including the prevalence of easterlies, a gradual change in wind patterns toward the northeast, and an increase in afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
PAGASA Weather Specialist Veronica Torres further explained that an analysis of the surface and upper air maps show a strengthening High Pressure Area north of the country.
She added that winds have been noticeably stronger in the northern part of the Philippines, indicating a gradual shift in the prevailing winds toward the northeast.
Torres also said that the potential tropical cyclone this weekend may only slightly enhance the habagat as the overpowering easterlies are likely to dominate.