In the eyes of the West, the future of global peace hinges on developments in the Middle East, Russia, and China.
NATO chief Mark Rutte recently emphasized that while NATO allies are just beginning to implement a defense spending goal of two percent of gross domestic product (GDP), Russia is projected to allocate eight percent of its GDP for military purposes by 2025. This significant military buildup raises concerns that Russia is not seeking peace.
Supported by allies such as China, North Korea, and Iran, Russia is dedicating one-third of its national budget to arms development, compensating in quantity for what it may lack in quality. Meanwhile, China is aggressively enhancing its nuclear capabilities with no transparency or limitations. In 2020, Beijing possessed only 20 nuclear warheads; by 2030, this figure could soar to a thousand. This rapid expansion poses a dangerous threat to global stability. Additionally, China is engaged in a “chip war” with the United States, emphasizing the critical role of semiconductors in robotics, military armaments, and artificial intelligence warfare.
Within this broader context, the conflicts in the Middle East appear relatively minor. The targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders have weakened Iran's proxy forces across the region. Iran itself is struggling with weak economic fundamentals and civil unrest, hindering its nuclear ambitions.
In Syria, the opposition has successfully deposed Bashar al-Assad, who has fled to Russia for asylum. As Russia evacuates its military presence in Khmeimim and Tartus, it risks losing leverage against Turkey—a nation it has been at odds with since Turkish forces shot down a Russian jet in 2015.
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is reportedly in the works, diminishing the perception of Gaza as a central issue. The brutal attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, resulting in the deaths of over a thousand Israelis, has been described as the "worst attack against Jews since the Holocaust." This has led to a severe military response, with relentless bombing of Gaza causing at least 40,000 Palestinian deaths this year alone.
Hamas is currently withholding the release of hostages, a condition for a ceasefire, in an effort to pressure Israel into a continuous assault on Gaza. This situation has created a significant public relations disaster for Israel on the global stage. However, the Gaza conflict is likely to reach a conclusion soon, as it is too small a territory to serve as a permanent source of tension.
A potential resolution could be a two-state solution—one Israel and one Palestine—recognized by peaceful Arab states like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Such a resolution might finally address the long-standing grievances in the region.
Conversely, the situation in Ukraine presents a different challenge. Russia has recently escalated its aggression with ballistic missile assaults on Kyiv and other cities, leaving half of Ukraine without power. This escalation was prompted by U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to permit long-range missiles to be used against Russian territory.
The question arises: Will President-elect Donald Trump fulfill his promise to end the Ukraine war upon taking office? One potential strategy is for Trump to withhold further military and financial support to Ukraine, compelling it to accept Russia's permanent occupation of seized territory in exchange for a ceasefire. However, whether Ukraine and Russia will agree to such terms remains uncertain.
One reassuring thought is that, despite Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, common sense suggests that the aggressor is unlikely to follow through due to the catastrophic fallout that would affect Ukraine—a country Russia aims to occupy. Putin likely understands the consequences of such an action.
Media analyst Elena Gold cites Putin’s chief spy, Nikolai Patrushev, who claimed that Trump could be assassinated if he fails to uphold his election promise regarding Ukraine. This statement highlights the dangerous game of international blackmail at play. Russia has demonstrated a willingness for violent retaliation, as exemplified by the fate of dissident Yevgeny Prigozhin, who attempted to take over Moscow in 2023. After failing and being pardoned by Putin, he died under suspicious circumstances just months later.
Russia appears prepared for a protracted war in Ukraine, while European nations are increasing their defense spending in anticipation of reduced U.S. aid. One notable supporter of Ukraine is Poland, whose economy has been growing rapidly, with a GDP that has surpassed $500 billion. In the coming decade, Poland could rival Germany and the United Kingdom, according to the "Daily Digest."
At the start of the Ukraine conflict, many nations hesitated to assist; Germany sent helmets while Poland provided 300 tanks to Kyiv. Poland is reportedly building its army to 300,000 strong by 2030, positioning itself as a significant military force in Europe.
Despite these developments, a prolonged stalemate in the Ukraine war seems likely, as it ultimately becomes a war of attrition.
Meanwhile, China is expected to continue asserting its influence in the West Philippine Sea. A coalition of ASEAN nations and allies, including the USA, Australia, Japan, and the UK, will strive to ensure that this region remains a safe route for international trade. While there may be rhetorical battles, the hope is that no shots will be fired.
Taiwan remains a critical flashpoint, as China seeks to annex the island nation, which has a substantial semiconductor manufacturing capacity. The island is also prepared to defend its sovereignty. The question remains: how far will the U.S. go to defend Taiwan against potential Chinese aggression?
The U.S.-China "trade war" further complicates matters, with Trump threatening a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and the U.S. restricting technology exports to 140 countries, including China. In response, China has charged NVIDIA in Russia with anti-monopoly and purchase violations.
During a recent meeting, Chinese leader Xi told Donald Trump, "If we cooperate, both our nations will prosper," highlighting the delicate balance of international relations.
For now, the prospects of an immediate, globe-threatening World War seem distant, but the uncertainty of global tensions raises questions about the future of peace and stability.
Bingo Dejaresco, a former banker, is a financial consultant and media practitioner. He is a Life and Media member of FINEX. His views here, however, are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of FINEX. [email protected]