Rolly was so prolific in the writing of articles, monographs and entire books on Agribusiness so that it is no surprise that last November 28, 2023, a posthumous book authored by him entitled “Transforming Agribusiness: Staying Relevant in a Changing World” was launched in fitting ceremonies at the University of Asia and the Pacific. Present were many of his colleagues at the UA&P, the academic community at large, agribusiness officials in both the public and private sectors and of course, members of his immediately family: his widow, Maria Linda; four children and their respective spouses and eight grandchildren, who were present either physically or in spirit.
As UA&P President Dr. Winston Padojinog wrote in the Preface to the book, there is much that policymakers, agribusinesses and educational institutions can learn from this book by revisiting or reshaping their approach to Philippine agribusiness in order to address the unique issues facing the sector and at the same time, capitalize on the opportunities it provides first and foremost in reducing poverty and meeting the growing and international demand for food. From the pages of the book, the reader will be able to uncover ideas culled from experience and research challenging the status quo and the current development and business models.
True to his very practical and empirical approach, Rolly wrote on “A Tale of Two Agricultures: The Philippines and Vietnam,” a very timely comparative study of two ASEAN countries that has many practical suggestions to emerging markets still struggling to attain food security. I chose to comment on this article because it encapsulates the most recent success story in agribusiness development in the ASEAN region that is replete with lessons for the Philippines which can be considered by President BBM and the newly appointed Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary Francis Tiu Laurel. It is especially relevant that Vietnam surpassed the Philippines in GDP per capita during the midst of the pandemic and has succeeded to bring down poverty incidence from double-digit to single-digit. The well-known achievement of Vietnam in attracting tens of billions of dollars of FDIs annually to its manufacturing sector (in 2023 alone the FDIs flowing into Vietnam have already exceeded $25 billion), especially among those enterprises leaving China, provides some important lessons to the Philippines, especially as regards keeping energy prices and real wages low. It is, however, what Rolly called the “agricultural miracle in the ASEAN” of Vietnam that provides us the most important lessons in combatting mass poverty.
Rolly found it easy to compare Vietnam with the Philippines as regards agricultural performance, the two countries having similarities in terms of land area, population, agricultural area and farm sizes. The divergences, however, reveal where we went wrong and fell behind in inclusive growth. Rolly found the divergences in fertilizer use, mechanization, terrain and irrigated land. First, fertilizer use is much higher in Vietnam than the Philippines. Second, farm operations are more mechanized. Third, irrigated land is almost four times bigger in Vietnam. The last mentioned can be explained by the almost unlimited supply of water made possible by the large areas of low elevation that make irrigation facilities easy to install, especially in the Mekong River delta. The access to this river (which it shares with Thailand, another low-cost producer of rice) is a major resource advantage of Vietnam and explains why it is a major rice exporter and a higher yielder. Here, he draws a policy recommendation: the Philippines should have never targeted 100 % rice sufficiency. Being an Archipelago, it does not enjoy an unlimited supply of water, which is the most important ingredient to attain high productivity in rice farming. He was then quick to point out, in defense of our agricultural experts, that it was false news that our Southeast Asian neighbors studied in U.P. Los Banos at the International Rice and Irrigation Institute (IRRI) and then applied what they learned from us, after which they started to export rice to us. The Philippines is permanently handicapped in the low-cost production of rice and, therefore, should not target 100 percent self-sufficiency. We failed in not providing the small rice farmers with farm to market roads, irrigation facilities, post-harvest and other vital services needed by the small farmers. It must be pointed out, however, that no matter how productive our rice farmers can be, they will never attain the level of cost effectiveness of the Thai and Vietnamese farmers because of the latter’s access to abundant water, the most important ingredient in palay production. We must be resigned to the fact that we will always have to import rice to attain 100 percent sufficiency.
He then started to compare the production performance, diversification and agri-food exports of the two countries during the past 20 years for production and 16 years for agri-export. The Philippines has slightly more harvested areas than Vietnam. Among the top crops by harvested area from paddy rice to coffee, the Philippines posted increases in six: paddy rice (+28 percent), coconut (+ 14 percent), banana (+19 percent), and sugar cane (+18 percent). The largest increases were in rubber (+144 percent) and mango (+ 50 percent). In the case of Vietnam, paddy rice (the largest crop) grew only by 8.5 percent, but other crops posted much higher increases: corn (+77 percent), rubber (256 percent), coffee (+226 percent), cashew (+127 percent), and tea (+88 percent).
Overall average yield rose by 17 percent for the Philippines. By contrast, Vietnam jumped 45 percent in Vietnam. The Philippines posted yield increases in six of the 10 crops: paddy rice, corn, banana, sugarcane, casava and sweet potato. Meanwhile, Vietnam recorded increases in all crops: paddy rice, corn, rubber, coffee, cassava, cashew, groundnuts, dry beans and coconut. In dollar terms, the Philippines’ crop values posted increases: rice 2.7 times and other crops 2.1 times. But Vietnam did much better: rice 3.6 times and other crops 5.6 times. Reflecting very poor product diversification, Philippine agri-food exports rose by 1.6 times from $1.88 billion in 2001 to $4.96 billion in 2016. Vietnam, in great contrast, increased its agri-food exports 5.6 times from $4.42 billion in 2001 to $24.55 billion in 2016. The Philippines failed miserably in product diversification: it had only two products with exports of $1 billion annually: coconut oil and fruits (bananas and pineapples). Vietnam had five products with exports of over $1 billion annually: fish and seafood, coffee. Pepper, nuts, rice, and fish preparation. Moreover, it has six more products earning over $500 million a year
From these figures, Rolly suggested where the Philippines went wrong. Among the major causes were focus on rice self-sufficiency; a failed agrarian reform program that led to lack of economies of scale; lack of continuity of programs and absence of meritorious civil service. In contrast, Vietnam was more successful in land consolidation (despite the widespread presence of small farms) as well in product diversification. It made better use of its human, natural and chemical factors of production. Its main challenge now is to give more importance to sustainable development by protecting the physical environment against the damage wrought by climate change.
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