OF SUBSTANCE AND SPIRIT
If there’s anything that the President would readily admit, it’s inflation that has kept him up at night. Sleepless nights in Malacañang are not good for his mental health, they are not good for the nation. But there is another piece of socio-economic indicator that must also keep the President not only sleepless but also disturbed.
In the latest national Social Weather Stations (SWS) Survey of Sept. 28-Oct. 1, more Filipinos believed their quality of life has worsened.
While some 28 percent of adult Filipinos claimed their quality of life was better than 12 months before, this was swamped by the 30 percent who said it got worse and the 41 percent who responded nothing has changed. As SWS concluded, this latest September survey shows the net gainer score of -2 was 13 points lower than the +11 in June 2023.
Being within the range of -9 to zero, SWS classifies this score of -2 as fair. SWS rates the “net gainers” score from a high of “excellent” (+20 and above) to some kind of baseline at fair (-9 to zero) to a low of catastrophic (-50 and below). In 150 surveys since 1983, the median stood at mediocre (-19 to -10) while the mode is around low (-29 to -20). Details may be more appreciated at https://www.sws.org.ph/aswsmain/artcldispage/.
This latest data reveals that for many Filipinos, life was no different from the time this current administration assumed the driver’s seat last year to the beginning of the last quarter of 2023. This is like asking for a receipt for cheaper rice, more jobs, more housing, better health and education.
By September of this year, the respondents must have realized that growth in the second quarter slowed down to 4.3 percent from the previous eight quarters of increasing economic growth and improving job opportunities. There was some brief interlude of feeling well in June this year, but after three months, the whole experience of perceived improvement in their quality of life just deteriorated. Respondents must have been affected by rising prices of basic goods from July to September. More felt worse than those who felt better.
One can even argue that because the pandemic is behind us, our record should be many times more favorable in terms of higher growth, lower inflation, and lower unemployment, and as a consequence, perception of higher quality of life.
It's difficult to question the methodology behind this survey. It was conducted using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults all over the Philippines. Philippine Statistics Authority population projections for 2023 were used to assign weights to regional results to achieve the national estimate. The results may be considered reliable by adjusting for their margin of error. The survey was not commissioned by any entity but is an SWS initiative in the spirit of public service.
The report also gives us the long view.
It shows that from 1983 under President Marcos, Sr. through the third quarter of 2023 under President Marcos Jr., the three lowest scores were recorded first, under the elder Marcos at -47 in July 1985 or extremely low.
What could be the underlying reasons?
Growth was lowest in 1985 at -6.9 percent while inflation was over 23 percent after the previous year’s devastating 50.3 percent inflation. People’s sentiment was negative perhaps because the economy was shrinking, prices were doubling while job opportunities were hard to find. Unemployment rate was double digit at 12.6 percent.
The second lowest point in the last 40 years was during the presidency of President Arroyo when the score plummeted to -50 in June 2008, clearly catastrophic. In 2008, growth slowed down significantly from a high of 7.3 percent in 2007 to 4.6 percent due to unprecedented hike in fuel prices and power rates and the debilitating impact of the global financial crisis. Inflation climbed from 2.9 percent to 8.3 percent while unemployment stood at a high 7.4 percent in July 2008.
Finally, the pandemic under President Duterte caused net gainers to fall to a historic low of -78 in May 2020, another catastrophic event. Again, this dismal public sentiment is not puzzling. Growth in the second quarter 2020 dropped precipitously from the last quarter of 2019’s 6.6 percent to -16.9 percent. Inflation was steady at the previous year’s 2.4 percent because business activities were paralyzed. Millions of people were out of jobs.
The latest readings also suggest that education is a game changer in determining the respondents’ career, that more years of schooling means better jobs and higher quality of life.
But what is also interesting is the finding about our people’s hunger. The same survey found that 9.8 percent of Filipino families experienced involuntary hunger that to SWS means “being hungry and not having anything to eat, at least once in the past three months.” This proportion is slightly lower than the 10.4 percent in June 2023 and the same as the 9.8 percent in March 2023.
But things may not work out well, the prospects are extremely challenged.
The country’s growth targets of 6-7 percent this year and 6.5-8 percent next year are at risk due to the global economic weakness, wars on two fronts, tight financial conditions and inflation pressures that are likely to persist through 2024.
A mouthful needs to be done to ensure we are running on all cylinders and that means singular pursuit of various initiatives in increasing the resiliency of public finance, strategic investment in infrastructure and economic services, digitalization and most important, stronger governance.
With more sustainable growth in place, there is a great space for a lot of specific direct intervention measures against hunger, poverty and inequality. Feeding program is as urgent as expanding our capacity to produce food for our people. Extending time-bound cash transfer is as urgent as creating jobs for the unemployed. Supplemental education to mitigate our literacy poverty is as urgent as overhauling our educational system to produce smart young scientists, engineers, educators, entrepreneurs, philosophers and artists.
Yes, these are difficult “must haves” but they will produce durable results for the sake of the next generation. Sleepless nights and worries are too small a price to pay. But let it not be said, as in Nero’s time, that we fiddled while the Philippines burned.