Metro Manila’s Covid-19 cases still rising, but may peak within a week — OCTA 


Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila may peak within seven days, as manifested by the slower pace of increase in infections in the past week, said OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David on Saturday, July 16.

“New Covid-19 cases in the NCR (National Capital Region) continued to increase, though at a lower growth rate of 28 percent, compared to 41 percent from the previous week,” David said in an update shared on Twitter.

“Cases are still rising but the current trends project a peak within seven days,” he added.

David noted that from July 9 to 15, Metro Manila had an average of 802 cases per day, while the average from July 2 to 8 was 624. 

The seven-day average translates to an average daily attack rate of 5.57 per day per 100,000 population.

David noted that the Department of Health considers an ADAR of 6 to be at moderate risk for Covid-19.

Furthermore, Metro Manila’s reproduction number was 1.38 as of July 12, from 1.49, as of July 5. 

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual.

Meanwhile, David pointed out that healthcare utilization for Covid-19 in Metro Manila remained low at 29.6 percent, with 1,827 beds occupied/

He added that ICU occupancy for Covid-19 was low at 22.8 percent, with 210 ICU beds occupied. 

“This current wave is still far from the levels of the Delta surge and the January Omicron surge, and hospitals are not likely to get filled up,” David said.

“Still, the public is advised to take necessary precautions,” he added.