We will soon bid farewell to 2022 and usher in 2023. What lies ahead remains cloudy but looking back is 20/20 vision.
2022 had a rocky start with a tsunami of Omicron cases washing over the country. It inundated the health care system again but, thankfully, this was a less virulent variant of COVID. Despite the large number of infections, most were mild to asymptomatic. I am not a health expert but, in my layman’s view, Omicron was like a half-dose of the vaccine. So, even while government struggled to bump up vaccinations, the surge in cases probably boosted a good many of us. In addition, it also helped people transition more easily from living-in-fear of COVID to actually living-with-COVID. I give this event a 6 out of 10 rating.
Another significant event was the holding of the national elections. Campaigning was always a major concern given the continuing threat of COVID. Fortunately, all the campaign events that were touted as “super spreaders” turned out to be duds. I imagine – again, not a technical expert here – that the primary vaccine campaign kicked into full gear in the second half of 2021 thus minimizing the rise in cases until, of course, Omicron hit. As I said, Omicron provided a mini-boost so that campaign events again went unimpeded until, even, voting day itself. I am thankful that the elections were smooth and peaceful. Surely, there were some scattered events that were a cause for concern but, generally, the electoral exercise was completed without serious incident. It resulted to the highest turnout of voters and assured the vox populi was counted. I give this event a 8 out of 10 rating.
The transition of power from the previous to the new administration went smoothly as well. Following the orderly inauguration of President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., the new administration wasted no time in getting down to business, including laying the groundwork for economic recovery. The PRRD team did a respectable job of transitioning the reins of government to the PBBM team. In short order, PBBM announced his cabinet, starting with a high-calibre selection of economic managers. The business sector and investors cheered. Confidence rose and the outlook for a return to economic growth spiked. There were a handful of nominees that drew some flak but, otherwise, PBBM’s choices received a resounding thumbs-up from many quarters. The inaugural State of the Nation Address (SONA) of PBBM also hit a lot of the right notes. I give this event a 9 out of 10 rating.
But even as the country weathered Omicron and successfully exercised its right of suffrage, global events created intense headwinds that threatened to throw the country’s economic recovery program into turmoil. The first was the rise of inflation in the United States. Supply-chain disruptions and a surge in consumer demand and spending led to a steep and rapid rise in prices. Consequently, this resulted to the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank raising interest rates, accompanied by a strengthening in the value of the U.S. Dollar and eventually a rise in interest rates and a fall in the value of other currencies across the globe. Markets – stock and currency – were thrown into disarray with analysts second-guessing the extent of the U.S. Fed’s next moves. As we know, the one thing that markets hate more than anything else is uncertainty. I give this event a 3 out of 10 rating, with the saving grace being the increased value of our Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) remittances.
The other significant global event was, of course, the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This threw a major monkey wrench on the supply of oil from Russia due to the imposition of trade sanctions on the country. This dislocation in supply caused oil prices to rise steeply and rapidly, further fuelling inflation and reducing spending power. The continuing conflict and sustained hyper-inflation has now thrown a serious dampener on the global economy. Projections for a recession are rampant and growth forecasts are being tempered across the board. I give this event a 1 out of 10 because, in my mind, this conflict should not have happened at all.
There were a number of other events that occurred – Typhoon Paeng, the passing of the Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act (EVIDA), the return to face-to-face school, the disruption in food supplies and peace-and-order incidents. In the balance, they raised concern in some sectors but not enough to throw the country into a state of general chaos.
Taking the good with the bad, I would say that 2022 was a fairly good year. It set up the stage for a more robust 2023, hopefully free from any further major disruptions – locally and globally. I would daresay that the worst is over and the light at the end of the tunnel will not dim but grow brighter.
For comments: [email protected]