OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said that Metro Manila may continue to see a fluctuating number of new Covid-19 cases toward the end of the year.
In an update shared on Twitter on Monday, Oct. 10, David said the seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila dropped to 863 on Oct. 9, from 1,057 on Oct. 2.
This translates to a one-week growth rate of negative (-) 18 percent.
David also pointed out that Metro Manila’s average daily attack rate (ADAR) dropped to 5.99 per 100,000, which is considered “low.”
ADAR or incidence rate refers to the number of new daily cases per 100,000 population.
“We hope that cases in the NCR (National Capital Region) continue to decrease, but with new subvariants coming in, a wall of immunity that is not solid, and the increasing numbers in other parts of the country, we might expect to see more ups and downs in new Covid cases towards the end of the year,” David said.
In OCTA’s monitoring, Metro Manila’s seven-day positivity rate—or the number of individuals who yielded positive results from among those who have been tested for Covid-19–was recorded at 17.9 percent on Oct. 8, down from a peak positivity rate of 19.1 percent on Oct. 1.
Moreover, the region’s reproduction number—or the average number of secondary infections per infected individual—dropped from 1.10 on Sept. 29 to 0.99 on Oct. 6.
“Healthcare utilization for Covid-19 remained low at 36 percent, while ICU occupancy also remained low at 28 percent—both are as of Oct. 8,” David said.