The independent research group OCTA said that the weekly Covid-19 positivity rate in Metro Manila increased to 14.5 percent on Sept. 14, from 12.7 percent on Sept. 7.
In an update shared on Twitter on Friday, Sept. 16, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David noted that the previous peak in positivity rate in Metro Manila during the current Covid wave was recorded on Aug. 5 at 17.5 percent.
“There is a possibility that this current resurgence will exceed this number,” David said.
The Covid-19 positivity rate recommended by the World Health Organization should remain at 5 percent or less to show that the spread of the virus is under control.
David added that the one-week growth rate of new cases in Metro Manila rose to 18 percent from -4 percent the previous week.
“The rise in cases in the NCR (National Capital Region) is likely to cause a corresponding rise in infections in nearby regions. Rizal and Bulacan are currently on an uptrend,” David said.
Moreover, Metro Manila’s reproduction number—the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual—was 1.14 on Sept. 12, surpassing the 1.03 on Sept. 5.
David said the average daily attack rate in Metro Manila was at 6.12 per 100,000 population, which is considered “moderate.”
Healthcare utilization for Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila also increased from 36 percent, with 2,319 beds occupied, on Sept. 5, to 39 percent, with 2,522 beds occupied, on Sept. 14.
Intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy also went up from 24 percent, with 243 ICU beds occupied, to 33 percent, with 358 ICUs occupied, over the same monitoring period.
However, these are still considered “low,” David said.