Two or three tropical cyclones are likely to develop within or enter the country’s area of responsibility in September, based on the 1948-2021 climatological record of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
The next tropical cyclone names will be “Inday,” “Josie,” and “Karding.”
PAGASA said that cyclone tracks in September are mostly “landfalling” or crossing the Philippines but still some cyclones are “recurving” or do not directly affect the country.
The four common climatological tracks in September are:
* Recurving tropical cyclones in the northeastern part of the Philippine area of responsibility or PAR (non-landfalling) moving towards Japan or Korea (less likely to enhance the southwest monsoon activity during passage).
* Recurving tropical cyclones towards the northwestern part of PAR (non-landfalling) moving towards Taiwan (may enhance the southwest monsoon activity during passage).
* Landfalling tropical cyclones traversing northern and extreme northern Luzon; moving towards Hong Kong or China.
* Landfalling tropical cyclones traversing the southern parts of Luzon; moving towards Vietnam.
PAGASA said that it expects near normal rainfall throughout the country this month, but the “probability leans toward above normal (40 to 50 percent).”
From October to December, “generally near to above normal rainfall conditions are predicted throughout the country and the probability for above normal is highly likely,” it added.
PAGASA also noted that the La Niña has “re-strengthened” and has 60 percent chance of prevailing until the December 2022 to February 2023 season.
It said the La Niña is responsible for the excessive rainfall in some parts of the country that triggers floods and landslides, especially in areas vulnerable to these hazards.