The La Niña weather pattern is expected to weaken from May to July, but may persist with a 50 to 55 percent chance of La Niña to continue thereafter, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its latest climate outlook.
PAGASA said La Niña is responsible for the excessive rainfall in some parts of the country that triggered floods and landslides, especially in areas vulnerable to these hazards.
Based on the PAGASA’s rainfall forecast for June, generally near-normal rainfall conditions are expected in most parts of the country except in Kalinga, Apayao, and Cagayan where below normal rainfall is likely, and in some parts of Central Luzon and Calabarzon where above normal rainfall is possible.
By July, below normal rainfall conditions are expected in Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, portion of the Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Cavite, and Guimaras.
Meanwhile, the rest of the country will have mostly near-normal rainfall.
By August, PAGASA said that generally near normal rainfall conditions are expected throughout the country except Dagupan City in Pangasinan, Pampanga, and Tarlac, where below normal rainfall is likely.
The La Niña conditions that the country is experiencing started in October 2021, when it formed over the Pacific Ocean.
It is the second consecutive year that the country has experienced this climate event.
PAGASA said back-to-back La Niña events have occurred in 2007 to 2008, 2008 to 2009, 2010 to 2011, 2011 to 2012, 2016 to 2017, and 2017 to 2018.
However, the latest back-to-back La Niña—2020 to 2021 and 2021 to present—appears that the “second comeback” may be longer than expected.