OCTA sees ‘weak’ surge in ‘worst’ Omicron subvariant scenario

Published May 24, 2022, 10:36 AM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz


In a worst-case scenario that the new Omicron subvariants spread, the independent research group OCTA projected that Metro Manila may only see a “weak” surge in Covid-19 cases in the coming weeks.

OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David made the assessment following the group’s observation that Metro Manila’s reproduction number has increased to 1.05 as of May 20.

“A reproduction number above 1 does not necessarily mean cases will surge. However, the last two times the reproduction number increased to more than 1 were on December 24, 2021, and July 15, 2021, i.e. during the start of the Omicron and Delta surges, respectively,” David said in an update posted on Twitter on Tuesday, May 24.

David pointed out that Metro Manila’s Covid-19 risk classification was still “low.”

“Over the next few weeks, the best-case scenario is status quo, while the worst-case scenario, based on currently available data, is a weak surge in Covid-19 cases,” he said.

David noted that Metro Manila’s average daily attack rate remained “very low” at 0.52 as of May 23.

Likewise, the daily positivity rate was low at 1.2 percent over an average of 11,319 tests per day, as well as hospital care utilization for Covid-19 was at 21 percent.

Last week, the Department of Health has confirmed the presence of Omicron subvariants BA.2.12.1 and BA.4 in the country.

According to experts, the Omicron subvariants appear to spread more easily but are milder than previous variants.