OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David said there was no sustained increase in Covid-19 cases so far after the election season in the country.
“Wala pa tayong nakitang increase ng cases doon sa campaign rallies and sorties. February pa tayo nagkaroon ng campaigns, wala pa namang nagkaroon ng pagtaas ng kaso na talagang sustained kasi may nakikita na tayong spikes pero maliliit lang yan at nawawala rin. Parang clustering of cases lang (We have not seen an increase in cases in campaign rallies and sorties. We had campaigns in February but there has been no sustained increase in cases as of now. We are only seeing spikes, but they are only small and have disappeared immediately. It is just like clustering of cases),” David said in a televised public briefing on Monday, May 16.
He noted that the country’s Covid positivity rate was still low at 1.1 percent, while reproduction number also remained below 1 or at 0.6 over the past week.
“Siguro malakas pa rin yung ating ball of immunity dahil sa vaccines at natural immunity pero again hindi pa natin masasabi yan definitely kasi baka magkaroon ng paggalaw ng kaso over the next few weeks kaya binabantayan yan ng mabuti (Maybe our ball of immunity is still strong because of vaccines and natural immunity but again we can’t say that for sure because there could be a movement in the number of cases over the next few weeks so we are monitoring it carefully),” David said.
“Mababa ang risk ng surge dahil sa May 9 elections pero ang game changer diyan na binabantayan natin yung panibagong subvariant itong BA.2.12, at yung BA.4 and BA.5 sa South Africa kung makapasok dito, pwedeng mag-iba talaga yung trajectory (The risk of a surge is low due to the May 9 elections but the game changer there that we are monitoring is the new subvariant BA.2.12, and the BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa if these enter the country, the trajectory can really change),” he added.
David noted that South Africa used to average almost 1,000 cases per day, but cases have increased to 8,000 per day driven by the more contagious Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5.
“Kung ikukumpara natin sa sitwasyon natin sa bansa, ngayon nasa 200 cases per day pa rin. Kahit tumaas yan to 250 hindi yan significant. Pero kung makakakita tayo ng pagtaas at umabot sa 400 to 500 definitely medyo magiging concerned na tayo. Baka nagkakaroon na ng pagtaas ng kaso (If we compare it with the situation in our country, the Philippines still averages 200 cases per day. Even if it increases to 250, it is not significant. But if we see an increase and it reaches 400 to 500 cases, we will definitely be a bit concerned as there may be an increase in cases),” he explained.
David pointed out that OCTA has seen no threat so far, although Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 has been detected in the country.