Around 77 percent of Filipinos who were surveyed from March 30 to April 6 were unlikely to change their choice for president, based on the PUBLiCUS Asia’s Pahayag 2022 survey results released on Sunday, April 17.
The first quarter non-commissioned survey asked 1,500 respondents to choose among options that may best describe the likelihood of changing their presidential vote before the election day on May 9.
In a statement, PUBLiCUS said 64 percent of respondents will “definitely not change” their vote, while another 13 percent will “likely not change” their vote.
Meanwhile, 16 percent said they “may or may not” change their presidential vote.
Only 1 percent said they will “likely change” their choice for president.
“Vote firmness measures the elasticity of a candidate’s vote share by gauging the likelihood of his or her supporters switching allegiances to another candidate. Voters who say they would definitely not change, or likely not change, their vote are considered ‘firm voters’ who form the floor of a candidate’s support. In other words, the proportion of firm voters indicates the candidate’s hardcore base of support that is unlikely to be swayed or converted by other candidates,” said PUBLiCUS executive director Aureli Sinsuat.
Marcos Jr. receives 88% firm voter support; Robredo with 79%
Former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. notched the largest proportion of firm voters in the PUBLiCUS survey.
Eighty-eight percent of respondents who showed Marcos as their choice for president said they would definitely not change or likely not change their vote.
Vice President Ma. Leonor “Leni” Robredo also enjoyed relatively high firm voter support, with 79 percent of her voters saying they would definitely or likely not change their vote.
“After multiplying the percentage of firm voters by their overall vote share on the March 30 to April 6 survey, we estimate Marcos’ floor of support for the presidency to be approximately 49 percent of the entire sample, while Robredo’s floor of support is around 18 percent,” Sinsuat said, noting that 56 percent of the 1,500 respondents to the survey chose Marcos as their presidential bet, while 23 percent chose Robredo.
“The vote firmness numbers portray an unfavorable situation for candidates hoping to catch Mr. Marcos in the polls. With the frontrunner’s floor of support nearing an outright majority of the sample, there appears to be little room left for other candidates to convert the number of voters needed to come out ahead on Election Day,” Sinsuat added.
Stronger firmness in VP race
Sinsuat also noted that vote firmness appeared to be even stronger in the vice presidential race, with 81 percent of respondents who chose a vice-presidential candidate showing that they would definitely or likely not change their vote.
Ninety-one percent of respondents who chose Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio as their vice-presidential candidate identified themselves as firm voters.
Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III, and Doc Willie Ong also registered relatively high firm voter shares at 83 percent, 77 percent, and 72 percent, respectively.