Presidential survey frontrunner Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s lead over runner-up, Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, has been narrowing down in the Manila Bulletin-Tangere survey series for the May 9, 2022 elections.
Tangere CEO and founder Martin Peñaflor said the latest series of surveys, with initial run last March 31, 2022 representing 1,200 respondents nationwide, showed Marcos still the top preferred presidential candidate, despite declining numbers compared to previous survey runs.
Support for Marcos has decreased from 58 percent in January, to 54 percent in February, and to 47 percent in March.
A follow-up survey with 2,400 respondents was conducted last April 4-6, to account for possible effects on voter preferences by the recent Commission on Elections PiliPInas Presidential Debates, yielded similar results with 48 percent of respondents having Marcos as their top presidential pick.
Meanwhile, the runner-up from the latest Tangere surveys, Moreno, maintained a slight edge in the March 31 survey run at almost 22 percent of the voter preference over Vice President Leni Robredo, who remained at third place with almost 21 percent, despite a surge in the latter’s numbers.
Moreno’s survey performance further improved to 24.21 percent, based on Tangere’s April 4-6 survey run.
Tangere said Robredo’s higher stronger showing, compared to 15 percent from the last February 4-5 Tangere survey run, was largely driven by survey participants from her bailiwick, the Bicol Region, as top presidential choice of almost 62 percent of respondents, Western Visayas (54 percent) and Eastern Visayas (46 percent).
The top three candidates were followed by Senator Manny Pacquiao (4.75 percent) and Senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson (4.08 percent).
Marcos lead gap narrows but more positive results for Moreno after Comelec debates
As the campaign season comes into full swing, the recent March 31 survey also shows that the gap between Marcos and Moreno drew closer at a net difference of 25 percentage points, compared to a 32-percentage point difference from the February 4-5 survey run.
“Such developments are supported by recent neck-to-neck numbers in vote-rich areas such as NCR (National Capital Region and Calabarzon, with combined total regional preference scores of 38 percent for Marcos vs. Domagoso’s 33 percent that represents almost 30 percent of survey participants,” Tangere said.
The research firm explained that Moreno’s two-percentage point gain shown by the follow-up April 4-6 survey (to 24.21 percent of respondents preferring him as presidential candidate) was supported by data, with 43 percent of respondents who watched the televised debates believing that the Manila Mayor showed the best performance during the live event, where Marcos was once again a no-show, while 25 percent of respondents believed Robredo was the best performer.
Two out of three survey respondents who chose Moreno as best performer also preferred him as presidential candidate.
“Around 67 percent of survey respondents who did not watch the recent debates also had BBM (Bongbong Marcos) as their top presidential pick. Interestingly, amongst BBM supporters who watched the debates, around one out of three said that Sen. Ping Lacson was the night’s best performer, while another 30 percent believed it was Domagoso, according to data,” Tangere said.
Moreno, top second-choice for president
The March 31 survey also shows that the Manila Mayor remained to be the preferred second choice for voters, next to their top presidential candidate choice.
“Domagoso is second top choice of 37.58 percent of respondents, followed by Sen. Panfilo Lacson at 17.33 percent, former Sen. Marcos at 13.75 percent and Vice President Robredo at 8.75 percent,” it said.
Survey results also showed that 48.4 percent of Marcos’ supporters and 53.44 percent of Robredo’s supporters said they prefer Moreno as their second choice for president.
The same sentiment was shared by four out of 10 survey participants that had either Lacson or Pacquiao as their first choice for president.