The old "Cold War" between Russia and America could develop into a "bare-knuckles" conflict now in Ukraine between Russia and the USA/NATO ( North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
Since the 1991 breakup of the USSR, Russia's Vladimir Putin has been anxiously insecure that Russia's influence over the former USSR republics has been eroded by the West.
In the 30-member NATO, for instance, three ex-USSR-members, namely, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia and Warsaw Pact previous members like Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria are now NATO members. The others have been strongly induced by the West to join NATO, some getting military and financial aid.
Ukraine is the largest republic of the splintered group, and together with Russia are among the biggest nations in the region whose natural products like oil and wheat do affect global prices. After the exit of President Donald Trump (who withheld military aid once for political expediency), Ukraine is ripe to join NATO now and get more western.
Thus, Putin (an ex-KGB officer for more than 15 years) bit the bullet and launched an invasion - the worst kind since after World War II with incursions by sea, land and air. Ukraine is resisting firmly while foreign military aid has been coming better late than never.
By way of background, by 2022, there is now 46 percent of the nations in the world classified as democracies, 37 percent autocratic and hybrids of both at 17 percent. Putin who has entrenched himself in power till 2035, is deathly afraid of "democracy."
If Ukraine succeeds economically and socially with the West's influence, Putin is anxious that such may present an allure from other former USSR states and even Russia itself to seek for "more democracy" and short-circuit his autocratic rule. To be economically affluent and still enjoy liberties is a Nirvana for many in the region enslaved by autocratic rulers for decades now. This makes Ukraine such a necessary "plum" for Russia to assert influence over.
Before that Russia occupied Crimea back in 2014, annexed the city of Sevastopol and the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk which are inside Ukraine territory itself. In fairness, 80-90 percent of Crimeans always wanted to side with Russia ever since.
Added to Russia's biodata of re-asserting influence in the region is its invasion of Georgia (2008) as this state had shown signs of "true independence". Twenty percent of Georgia today remains under Russian military control. At about the same time, Russia launched a vicious cyberattack against Estonia's government, political, financial sites just because Estonia transferred a bronze soldier statue of World War II from its capital to a military cemetery.
When America accused Russia of geopolitical expansionism, the latter says it was just a case of the "pot calling the kettle black". It enumerates many of America's interference as well in the Middle East and using preserving "democracy" as a pretext to launch offensives against countries there. It was America's interest in Middle East oil that is behind these moves, Russia says.
It cites the USA aiding Iraq in its 8 years with Iran (with no winners). The USA was named for involvement in the Fall of the Shah of Iran and did air strikes against Iran and Syria for alleged nuclear weapons development. It recalls the 2003 US invasion of Iraq for alleged possession of "weapons of mass destruction". There was the Persian Gulf standoff and the assassination of a top Iranian general by the use of drones.
The USA/NATO combined to side with the rebels in deposing Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi in the 2011 civil war. Libya owns 3 percent of the world's oil reserves at 48 billion barrels. The USA also threatened airstrikes versus Syria in 2013, accusing it of using "chemical weapons" during their civil war.
Many can conclude that both sides have indeed used military violence; America in defending its interest in Middle East Oil Politics and Russia "defending" against the eastward Western influence in the former USSR region by taking the military offensive against its neighbors and their annexation.
Afghanistan, on the other hand, is a case study of how the national interest of rival nations can allow each other to operate in the same contested land. Russia tried to occupy Afghanistan in the 1980s to combat terrorism and border issues. Unable to contain the Taliban, Russia effectively allowed America to occupy Afghanistan in retaliation against the Al-Quaeda group for 9-11, starting in 2001. Last year, after President Biden's election, however, America deserted Afghanistan completely.. (Washington had already killed the terrorist leader in a night of Navy Seal operation in Pakistan earlier.)
These geopolitical moves over the last decades can help one understand better the aggressive moves of Russia over Ukraine for over a week now. And be wary that a little learning can be a dangerous thing, indeed.
(Bingo Dejaresco, a former banker, is a financial consultant and media practitioner. He is a Lifetime and Media member of Finex. His views here, however, are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Finex. [email protected]).