Metro Manila's coronavirus disease (COVID-19) reproduction number has decreased to 4.69 as of Jan. 8, 2022, which, according to OCTA Research Group, indicates that the upward trend in cases in the region could be slowing down.
"The reproduction number had been higher than 5 since Dec. 30, 2021, when the outbreak in the NCR (National Capital Region) started. On Jan. 2, the reproduction number was at 6.16," said OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Guido David in a Twitter post on Wednesday, Jan. 12.
Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual.
"A decreasing reproduction number indicates that the trend is slowing down. One way to think of this is a decreasing growth rate--cases are still rising but at a slower pace," David explained.
He further noted that in the past surges, a peak is always preceded by a decreasing reproduction number.
"Are we close to the peak in the NCR? Hopefully, because the trends being observed are based on limited data, there is still uncertainty when the peak might happen. Again, hopefully, sooner than later. Until then, let us continue to follow best health practices and wear good face masks in public," David said.
However, David pointed out that Metro Manila is "definitely not out of the woods" yet.
"In fact, we should be more vigilant now than ever. Cases are still high and NCR is still on a severe outbreak," he said.