The tropical storm with the international name "Rai" has intensified into a severe tropical storm, just hours ahead of its expected entry in the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday, Dec. 14.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said severe tropical storm Rai has maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 115 kph, as of 11 a.m.
It was estimated at 1,165 kilometers east of Mindanao at around 10 a.m., Tuesday, and is expected to enter the PAR in the afternoon or evening.
Once inside PAR, the local name "Odette" will be assigned to this tropical cyclone.
"While inside the PAR, favorable atmospheric conditions will favor sustained intensification prior to landfall. This tropical cyclone is forecast to reach the typhoon category on Wednesday (Dec. 15). Pre-landfall peak intensity of around 155 kph may be reached by Thursday morning or afternoon (Dec. 16), PAGASA said.
The tropical cyclone, to be called Odette, is expected to make landfall over Caraga or Eastern Visayas by Thursday afternoon or evening.
"There is a high likelihood that tropical cyclone wind signals (TCWS) will be hoisted over the Visayas, large portions of Mindanao, and several provinces in southern Luzon due to the threat of strong to typhoon-force winds associated with the passage of Rai. The highest possible wind signal that may be hoisted is TCWS No. 3," PAGASA said.
PAGASA Administrator Vicente Malano said that some areas in the eastern portions of Visayas and Mindanao may be placed under Signal No. 1 as early as Tuesday afternoon or evening.
This means that these areas have at least 36 hours from the time the tropical cyclone warning has been raised to prepare.
He urged the public, especially those in Visayas, Mindanao, and parts of southern Luzon, to prepare for the arrival of the storm and heed the alerts and warnings of the weather bureau.
Malano pointed out the need to prepare as Mindanao had experienced devastating December tropical cyclones in recent years. These include typhoon Betty in 1949, typhoon Sendong in 2011, typhoon Pablo in 2012, and typhoon Ursula in 2019.
PAGASA senior weather specialist Chris Perez said the trough or extension of the severe tropical storm is expected to bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Caraga and Davao Oriental in the next 24 hours.
However, Perez warned that as the tropical cyclone traverses the central portion of the archipelago, heavy to torrential rains may trigger flooding or landslides in Visayas, Mindanao, and several provinces in southern Luzon.
He added that coastal inundation due to high waves near the coast and storm surges are also possible in low-lying localities near and along the path of the cyclone.
"Residents over the northern and eastern portions of Northern Luzon and the eastern portion of Central Luzon are also advised to monitor for updates regarding possible heavy rainfall which may occur in relation to the behavior of the shear line during and after the passage of this tropical cyclone," he said.