'Let's not be complacent': Metro Manila's COVID-19 reproduction number, one-week growth rate increase, says OCTA

Published November 15, 2021, 10:20 AM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz


Independent research group OCTA observed a higher coronavirus disease (COVID-19) growth rate and reproduction number in Metro Manila compared to the previous week.

OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David on Monday, Nov. 15, said the National Capital Region (NCR) recorded an average of 435 cases per day from Nov. 8 to 14, a “positive” growth rate of 8 percent from the 404 cases per day a week ago.

“The growth rate had been consistently negative since Sept. 18, when the downward trend was confirmed,” David said in a tweet.

Metro Manila’s reproduction number, or the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, also increased to 0.52 from 0.37.

David, however, pointed out that there is “no indication yet of an upward trend in cases,” but “we assume we are seeing a readjustment of numbers due to backlog.”

“Are we seeing an upward trend? At this time, my analysis says no, at least not yet. But let’s not be complacent,” he said.

OCTA on Oct. 26 reported that Metro Manila was already at low risk for COVID-19 due to a continued decline in infections.

The Department of Health also declared Metro Manila’s low-risk classification for COVID-19 on Nov. 2.

With the lower classification, David reminded the public that the downward trend can be easily reversed if people are complacent.

He appealed to the public to continue to adhere to the minimum public health protocols to prevent a resurgence in infections.