OCTA: PH's COVID-19 reproduction number falls below 1

Published September 25, 2021, 7:37 PM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz


Independent research group OCTA on Saturday, Sept. 25, said the country’s coronavirus reproduction number or the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual was down to 0.98 from 1.16 a week ago.

The Department of Health on Saturday reported 16,907 more coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the country, bringing the total case tally to 2,470,235.

“With today’s number, the reproduction number in the country decreased to 0.98 [from 1.16 a week ago],” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a tweet.

OCTA has been hoping to see the reproduction number fall below 1 to gradually see a reduction in the actual number of daily report COVID-19 cases.

A reproduction number of 1 means one person with COVID-19 may infect one other person on average.

David also noted that the country’s average number of daily cases of 20,218 cases just a week ago is now down to 17,526 cases, with a one-week growth rate of -13 percent.

Meanwhile, the country’s positivity rate of 25 percent is still considered high as the ideal positivity rate set by the World Health Organization is 5 percent.

This refers to the number of people who test positive given the testing.

While reproduction number is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country, it also considers positivity rate as a “strong supporting indicator.”