OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David on Sunday, Sept. 19, reiterated that the current surge in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila may have already reached its peak.
He noted that Metro Manila has consistently recorded "negative one-week growth rates" in terms of reported COVID-19 cases over the past few days.
"When the growth rates are consistently negative, this is usually a sign that the peak in daily cases have been reached," David said on Twitter.
He said that the reproduction number or infection rate in Metro Manila has further decreased to 1.18 with a seven-day average of 5,260 cases from Sept. 12 to 18.
"This is 10 percent lower than the previous week's daily average, i.e. a growth rate of -10 percent. Others may see it differently, but I see a peak on Sept. 11. This trend may still reverse though, let us hope not," he added.
David pointed out that the trend can be easily reversed if the public does not exercise proper caution.
"Again, trends may still reverse, so we need to sustain our efforts so that these gains will not be lost," he said.
David on Saturday, Sept. 18, said there were indications that the current surge in cases may have already reached its peak.
However, OCTA's pronouncement contradicts the assessment of the Department of Health (DOH) saying that they are "still not seeing that cases are peaking."
DOH on Saturday reported 23,134 more COVID-19 cases and 255 new deaths in the country.
However, David said that the country's seven-day average of new cases has decreased by 2 percent to 20,218 from 20,705.
", the country had a negative growth rate in new COVID-19 cases for the first time since July 2021," he noted.