Metro Manila logs lower reproduction number at 1.34 — OCTA

Published September 15, 2021, 12:40 PM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz

(ALI VICOY / MANILA BULLETIN FILE PHOTO)

The reproduction number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila was down to 1.34 from 1.39, but average daily cases was still more than 5,000, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said on Wednesday, Sept. 15.

The reproduction numner refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.

David said that Metro Manila’s seven-day average of new cases is at 5,854 while the growth rate is at 11 percent.

He added that the region’s COVID-19 cases may not have hit their peak yet but “maybe getting close.”

“I am expecting lower numbers today. For PH [Philippines], the range is 14k to 18k [14,000 to 18,000] and my guts says 15k [15,000], with 4k [4,000] in the NCR [National Capital Region],” he said in a Twitter post.

On Tuesday, Sept. 14, the Philippines reported 18,056 new COVID-19 cases, pushing the country’s cumulative total to 2,266,066.

“With the latest number of new COVID-19 cases on 9.14.21, the reproduction number [in the Philippines] is down to 1.26 and growth rate at 10%. Let us continue to work together so our country heals faster,” David said.

The government has decided to place Metro Manila under Alert Level 4, the second-highest alert level when the region shifts to a granular lockdown scheme on Thursday, Sept. 16.

 
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