OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the National Capital Region (NCR) will likely see about 2,000 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases per day next week due to the continuous increase in cases in the region.
"We are seeing possibly 2,000 cases per day in NCR by next week or so. This would be worrisome. Right now we're averaging almost 1,100 cases per day in the NCR. If we get to 2,000 it would be close to our surge capacity, meaning our contact tracing will start to break down or become less efficient. Our testing would be strained," he said in an ANC interview on Friday, July 30.
Based on OCTA's latest monitoring report, Metro Manila averaged 1,096 cases per day during the July 23-29 period.
This is an increase of 28 percent from the 854 cases per day during the July 16-22 period.
OCTA said Metro Manila's reproduction number or infection rate also increased to 1.38, classified as "high."
Meanwhile, the region's hospital capacity utilization (41 percent) and ICU utilization (50 percent) remain "low."
In its monitoring report, OCTA also noted that Malabon, San Juan, and Navotas had the highest increase in COVID-19 cases during the July 23-29 period.
Malabon's seven-day growth rate increased by 200 percent--from 17 cases during the July 16-22 period to 51 cases at present.
It was followed by San Juan City with an increase of 186 percent, from seven cases to 20 cases; and Navotas City, from 12 cases to 24 cases.
Meanwhile, OCTA said Cagayan de Oro City remains at "critical risk" for COVID-19 with its reproduction number at 1.53 and positivity rate of 25 percent.
Its increase in weekly cases (from 93 to 147 cases), average daily attack rate (20.11 percent), hospital capacity utilization rate (81 percent), and ICU utilization rate (83 percent) were classified as "high risk."
Local government units that were tagged as "high risk" for COVID-19 were Quezon City, Cebu City, Davao City, Makati City, Lapu-Lapu City, Iloilo City, General Santos City, Laoag City, Caloocan City, Mandaue City, Mariveles in Bataan, Las Piñas City, Valenzuela City, Bacoor in Cavite, Malabon City, and Santa Rosa in Laguna.