The target to reach herd immunity by Christmas, particularly in Metro Manila and eight other high-risk areas, is "reasonable" but it could change if the Delta variant of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spreads in communities, a research fellow of OCTA Research group said on Sunday, June 27.
"Given the numbers, our hope to reach herd immunity at least in the NCR (National capital Region) Plus 8 by Christmas is reasonable. Again, this does not take into effect the Delta variants. So the Delta variant arrives and things will change," molecular biologist-priest Nicanor Austriaco said in a Teleradyo interview.
The NCR Plus 8 is composed of COVID-19 "high-risk areas" namely Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Pampanga, Batangas, Metro Cebu, and Metro Davao.
"What we've noticed over the past year and a half, we have a surge when there is a new variant. If there is no variant then things come down and that’s what you are seeing now. You are seeing a coming down after the arrival of the Alpha and Gamma variants, which are the British and South African variants. So now we have to protect ourselves from the Delta variant," Austriaco pointed out.
"The numbers for the NCR Plus are looking excellent. We have recovered from the surge but the question is the threat of the Delta or the Delta Plus. I think this is something that the government is going to examine. It's not just how good are we now but we have to be ready in case the Delta or the Delta Plus arrives," he said.
He said that the Delta variant, which was first detected in India, and Delta Plus variant, which arose in Nepal, were found to be "more transmissible.
Aside from being more transmissible, Austriaco noted that the Delta Plus variant "shows vaccine evasion" which means it is "resistant to some of the vaccines."
"The Delta variant is now the most common Delta version but the Delta Plus version that arose in Nepal is slowly growing also," he said.
While there is no evidence yet that the Delta or Delta Plus variants are in community transmission, Austriaco urged Filipinos to get vaccinated against COVID-19 to be protected from emerging variants.
Austriaco also noted the importance of implementing strict international travel protocols to prevent the Delta variant from entering and spreading within communities.
"It is absolutely essential to protect our borders at this time. The 10-day quarantine is 99.7 percent effective. In many other countries are even doing 14 days which is 100 percent effective," he said.
"It's important they go to quarantine especially our kababayans (countrymen) who are returning from India and other hot Delta areas. Hopefully, we maintain the 10-day if not the 14-day quarantine for them," he added.