OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the government may consider further easing of some restrictions in the NCR (National Capital Region) Plus bubble as trends continue to improve in most parts of Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal.
These areas are under heightened general community quarantine status until May 31.
David said that the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) risk classification of NCR has been downgraded to "moderate risk" from "high risk" due to a downtrend in COVID cases.
Over the past week, Metro Manila's seven-day average of new cases has decreased to less than 1,100.
"The positivity rate is now down to 10 percent, the first time that we saw 10 percent positivity rate in the NCR. And the reproduction number is 0.57," David said in a CNN interview on Tuesday, May 25.
"So these indicators are good. We believe that the national government could seriously consider easing some restrictions in the NCR while still keeping an eye on possible risk elements. We don’t recommend of course easing all the restrictions all at once," he added.
However, David said that while the situation is improving in NCR Plus, OCTA has observed a "spike" in COVID-19 cases in local government units (LGUs) outside NCR.
"A few weeks ago during the surge, the top 10 were comprised of all LGUs from the NCR. But now the top 10 consists of just five LGUs in the NCR and five from outside the NCR bubble. So we are seeing increases in places like Davao City, Puerto Princesa, Bacolod, Iloilo City, and Cagayan de Oro, also General Santos," he pointed out.
"There is a spike. We can’t really say it’s a surge yet but definitely, there is an increase in cases," he added.
David said lax border restrictions could be one of the factors that led to the spike in cases in these cities.
"It could be a number of factors. Sometimes there is lax border restrictions and that allowed cases to migrate from the epicenter to the provinces. Or it could be international border restrictions," he said.
OCTA has been pushing for the vaccination of 50 percent of "high-risk" areas, which include the cities of Tuguegarao, Santiago, Baguio, Cainta, Cebu, and Imus, including Metro Manila to achieve "herd containment."
"These are the areas that are, in 2021, have the highest average daily attack rate. What we are seeing there is that these LGUs are the ones that always under threat of the surge. Even if the trend is improving in the NCR we can say that the threat is still there," David said.
"We definitely add some of the emerging high-risk areas just like Bacolod, Iloilo, Cagayan de Oro, and Davao to the list of LGUs wherein we can target the vaccination of 50 percent of their population. We hope that 50 percent of the population being vaccinated will help us tremendously in restoring the economy and accelerating recovery in these LGUs. This will also trickle down to the other LGUs and provinces that are not high risk," he added.
David said 50 percent is "good enough" like in Israel that has since "gone back to a semblance of the old normal."
"But definitely we want to target eventually a number as high as 75 percent to achieve herd immunity if we can achieve that because based on our calculations 75 percent is what we need," he said.
"Unfortunately, 75 percent of the population is not realistic right now because minors, children are not yet eligible to be vaccinated and they comprise almost 30 percent of the population. And then if we have, let’s say, 20 percent that is maybe strongly against vaccination. Of course, we have to educate them with information drive. But we believe that 50 percent is the fair target for vaccination. And then we can achieve a level of containment by doing so," he added.