The OCTA Research Team on Friday, March 19, proposed the implementation of "circuit breaker" lockdown, either a "hard general community quarantine" (GCQ) or "soft modified enhanced community quarantine" (MECQ), to mitigate the surge of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the country.
"We believe that, yes, minimum public health standards are very important--practice of minimum health standards, wearing of mask, face shield, practicing social distancing, and washing of hands," OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye said in a press briefing on Friday.
"While this is important and this should be a cornerstone of our approach to dealing with this current surge, that it by itself, this will not be enough," he added.
OCTA recommended the implementation of circuit breaker lockdown "to prevent the surge from becoming full blown and potentially overwhelming the healthcare system."
"The purpose of our circuit breaker proposal or you can call it hard GCQ or soft MECQ, whatever name that the government decides to use moving forward, it has to have the impact of reducing the R (reproduction number)," Rye said.
"Because if we reduce the R, which is now at 1.9 to something like 1, in the next two to four weeks it's going to eventually lower infections. It will definitely have impact on hospitalization and deaths or mortality," he added.
He said there are two important elements of a circuit breaker lockdown--strong adherence to minimum public health standards and mobility restriction.
Rye explained that hard GCQ means returning to GCQ restrictions in September 2020, where there is curfew and more mobility and other restrictions.
Under a hard GCQ, he further explained that the operation of government offices and industries will continue but with a significant percentage of workforce allowed to work through various arrangements, such as work-from-home and/or on staggered work hours, etc. during the quarantine period.
Social gatherings, as well as certain activities in enclosed areas, will also be discouraged during the duration of the quarantine.
Quarantine pass for the work force may also be considered under a hard GCQ, while mass transportation should be available for all workers during the quarantine.
However, Rye said that if a hard GCQ would not work after two weeks, a soft MECQ can instead be implemented.
He noted that soft MECQ is different from the MECQ restrictions in August 2020.
Under a soft MECQ, operation of government offices and industries, including micro, small and medium-scale enterprises, will continue.
"But for the government and the industries, a significant percentage of workforce are allowed to work through various arrangements, such as work-from-home and/or on staggered work hours, etc. during the quarantine period," Rye said.
Malls and groceries and other essential businesses will continue to operate but at limited capacity, while all social gatherings are prohibited during the quarantine period, he added.
Under a soft MECQ, mass transportation must continue for the benefit of workers.
"We'd like to emphasize this is a serious surge. No amount of minimizing will bring down the importance and relevance of this surge," Rye said.
"It's important for us to first see this as the major problem that we have to deal with now," he added.
Rye pointed out that the current situation, especially in Metro Manila, is "still manageable."
"While serious as it is, the surge in the NCR (National Capital Region), we believe in OCTA can still be mitigated but there is a small window of opportunity that exists. That means in the next days to a week, the key for us is implementing timely and appropriate responses to reverse the surge," he said.
"Right now as we speak, we do not see that what we are doing at the moment would be enough as far as mobility restrictions are concerned to reduce or mitigate this surge," he added.