Tropical depression "Auring" (international name "Dujuan") has continued to move towards the country's landmass but may weaken further before its landfall within the day, Feb. 22.
In its 2:00 a.m. severe weather bulletin, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Auring may initially make landfall over Dinagat Islands, Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island), or Leyte area in the next six to 12 hours.
However, it noted that Auring will likely weaken further before it makes landfall "due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the northeast monsoon."
After its landfall, it may weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a low pressure area within 24 hours or earlier, PAGASA also said.
Tropical cyclone wind signal number 1 remains hoisted over several areas due to the continuous threat of the weather disturbance.
As of 2:00 a.m. Monday, the places under Signal No. 1 were Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, Catanduanes, eastern portion of Camarines Sur, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Siquijor, northern and eastern portions of Negros Oriental, northern and central portions of Negros Occidental, eastern portion of Iloilo, eastern portion of Capiz, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, northern portion of Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, northern portion of Agusan del Sur, eastern portion of Misamis Oriental, and Camiguin.
PAGASA said moderate to heavy rains may prevail over Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Camiguin, and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, Quezon, and the rest of Visayas, Caraga, and Northern Mindanao on Monday morning.
Until Monday evening, moderate to heavy rains may persist across Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Quezon, Marinduque, and Romblon, and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, and the rest of Visayas.
Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding, including flash floods, and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly susceptible to these hazards.
Moreover, adjacent or nearby areas may experience flooding even in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels.
Moreover, in the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the northeast monsoon and tropical depression Auring may bring strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where Signal No. 1 is in effect, as well as over the southern portion of Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol region.
Rough seas may also affect the seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1, including the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon, southern seaboard of Luzon, and the remaining seaboards of Visayas.
PAGASA warned that sea travel is risky especially for small boats.
As of 1:00 a.m., Monday, the center of Auring was estimated at 180 kilometers east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte.
It was moving west-northwest at 15 kilometers per hour (kph), with maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 70 kph.