Cebu province is now considered a "serious concern" due to a continuous increasing trend in new cases of COVID-19, according to the OCTA Research Group's latest report released on Thursday.
The group expressed concern over the possibility that the UK B.1.1.7 variant is spreading in parts of Cebu.
It reported that Cebu province averaged 147 new COVID-19 cases per day over the past seven days.
This is an increase of 67 percent from the previous week (December 17 to 23, 2020) wherein the province averaged just 11 new cases per day.
"The reproduction number in Cebu province over the past week was 1.57, much higher than the reproduction number for the entire Philippines, which was 0.96," the team said.
They further noted that the positivity rate over the past week was 6 percent even as PCR testing in the region increased by 10 percent to 2,400 tests per day.
"While the attack rate of Cebu was still below the high risk cutoff, the significant increase in new cases, if unmitigated, could pose challenges to the healthcare system of the province," the OCTA Research Group pointed out.
It noted that the last time Cebu was placed under enhanced community quarantine, the province averaged 400 new cases per day.
"This number could be reached in two weeks if trends are not reversed," OCTA said.
They expressed concern over the possibility that the UK B.1.1.7 variant is spreading in parts of Cebu.
In the same report, OCTA Research Group noted that Iloilo is the only other province that had a significant increase in new cases, "although its attack rate remained low and positivity rate was below 5 percent.
OCTA also cited that trends are leveling off in the National Capital Region (NCR) and many other parts of the country, including provinces where cases of the UK B.1.1.7 variant were identified.
The reproduction number in NCR decreased to 0.93, while the positivity rate held at 4 percent as trends remained flat, the group said.
It also said the growth of cases in Mountain Province, where the UK variant was identified, started to slow down as certain barangays were placed under lockdown.
Other provinces also saw a decline in the number of cases. These include Isabela, Cagayan, Kalinga, Pangasinan, and Benguet.
However, positivity rates remain high in Mountain Province, Benguet, and Pangasinan.
In Mindanao, Davao del Norte had a slight increase in new cases, while Davao del Sur, and Misamis Oriental had slight decreases.
OCTA said continuous monitoring will be conducted in Bukidnon, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, and South Cotabato as they averaged more than 20 new cases per day over the past week.
It said the rest of Calabarzon and Central Luzon also had a leveling in trend, except for Cavite, which had a slight increase in new cases.