Tropical cyclone wind signal No. 3 has been raised over Catanduanes before Saturday noon as typhoon “Rolly” (international name “Goni”) rages towards the eastern coast of Luzon.
In its forecast track around mid-Saturday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Adminisration (PAGASA) said the eye of typhoon “Rolly” may pass very close to Catanduanes, Calaguas Islands, Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur around Sunday morning, and over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon province by afternoon.
As of 10 a.m. Saturday, “Rolly” was already at 480 kilometers east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, moving west-southwest at 20 kilometers per hour (kph).
PAGASA is also not ruling out the possible landfall of “Rolly” over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur due to the proximity of the forecast track to Bicol region.
Violent winds and intense rainfall associated with the inner rainband-eyewall region will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and the northern portion of Camarines Sur early Sunday through afternoon and over Quezon and the southern portion of Aurora from afternoon through evening.
PAGASA weather specialist Benison Estareja said the eye of “Rolly” will likely pass directly over Quezon-Aurora, entire Central Luzon, “where Metro Manila and Rizal will be closest,” and over parts of Ilocos Region, particularly Pangasinan and La Union.
After crossing Central Luzon, the center of “Rolly” may exit the mainland Luzon landmass, most likely through Zambales-Bataan area by Monday morning, Estareja said.
PAGASA said “Rolly” has maintained its maximum sustained winds of 215 kph near the center and gustiness of up 265 kph.
It is likely to remain a typhoon with maximum winds between 185-205 kph by the time it grazes Bicol region and makes landfall over Quezon province.
While crossing Luzon, “Rolly” may weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea. But do not let your guard down as it may still be possibly destructive.
Storm Signal No. 3 has been already hoisted over Catanduanes as the province may already feel the direct impact of “Rolly” in at least 18 hours (with winds 121 kph to 170 kph).
Signal No. 2 was raised over the central and southern portions of Quezon (Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Candelaria, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio, Sariaya, Tayabas City, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Mulanay, San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Buenavista, Lopez, Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Quezon, Alabat, Perez) including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias and Ticao Islands, Marinduque, and Northern Samar.
Winds of greater than 61 kph to 120 kph may be expected with a lead time of at least 24 hours from the time the tropical cyclone warning has been raised.
Meanwhile, areas under Signal No. 1 were Metro Manila, the rest of Masbate, the rest of Quezon, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, southern portion of Isabela (Aurora, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, San Mariano, Palanan, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Cordon, Santiago City, Ramon, San Isidro, Angadanan, Alicia, Cauayan City, Cabatuan, San Mateo), northern portion of Samar (Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Nino, Tarangnan, Catbalogan City, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), northern portion of Eastern Samar (Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo), and Biliran.
Winds 30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours.
Beginning early Sunday, the passage of the typhoon may bring heavy to intense rains over Metro Manila, Bicol region, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Central Luzon, Marinduque, and northern portions Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro.
Moderate to heavy rains will may also prevail over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Romblon, and the rest of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro.
PAGASA warned that flooding, rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows or lahar may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly susceptible to these hazards.
Destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Signal No. 3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under Signal No. 2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under Signal No. 1.
Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal to be raised will be Signal No. 4 for very destructive typhoon-force winds.
Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela that are not under Signal No. 1.
There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge of up to 3.0 meters (m) over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Marinduque, Bicol region, and Northern Samar and the other coastal areas of Quezon in the next 48 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
PAGASA said this storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast.
Rough to “phenomenal” seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where tropical cyclone warning signal is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under tropical cyclone warning signals) and Caraga.
Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters, especially those under storm warning signals.
Meanwhile, moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country.
Mariners of small sea vessels were advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea, while inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
While “Rolly” is unleashing heavy rains and intense winds over Luzon, the tropical depression with international name “Atsani” could enter the Philippine area o responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon. It will be assigned its local name “Siony” once inside the PAR.
It was estimated at 1,655 km east of Southern Luzon around 10 a.m. Saturday.
“Atsani” has maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 70 kph, while moving northwestward at 25 kph. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24, and further into a typhoon in the next few days.
It remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next three days. But Estareja said PAGASA is not ruling out a possible landfall over Central or Southern Luzon, before recurving toward the southern islands of Japan in the coming days.