The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration said Wednesday a weak to moderate La Niña event may set in next month and has the potential to induce flooding and landslides towards the end of 2020.
PAGASA climate monitoring and prediction section chief Ana Liza Solis said similar conditions to a weak to moderate La Niña event were the occurrences in 2005-2006, 2008-2009, 2016-2017, and 2018-2019.
She said near to above normal or 80 percent to more than 120 percent of the normal rainfall is likely in October 2020 to March 2021, except in February 2021, in Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos region, Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon.
"Way below to below normal" or 80 percent to less than 40 percent of normal rainfall may prevail over these areas by February 2021.
Moreover, generally near to above normal rainfall is likely in Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao from October 2020 to March 2021.
Solis said above normal rainfall conditions mean occurrences of floods and landslides during this period.
"Sa probable affected sectors, kung halimbawa sa agriculture, puwede niyo balikan kung anong naging performance ng production in September-December 2016 up to the first quarter of 2017 dahil ito ‘yung similar condition ng La Niña na ito (In the probable affected sectors, for example in agriculture, you can go back to what the agricultural performance was in September-December 2016 up to the first quarter of 2017 because this is the similar condition of this La Niña)," Solis said during the PAGASA monthly climate outlook forum.
Other sectors can also revisit the impact of the La Niña during the years 2005-2006, 2008-2009, and 2017-2018, she said.
"You can check the La Niña events that started during the September-October-November season and occurred as weak to moderate events. That will serve as basis for early action among sectors that will be directly affected by the La Niña," Solis said.
She also urged the national government to prepare precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of the La Niña.