OF SUBSTANCE AND SPIRIT
July ended with our medical practitioners calling for the National Capital Regionto be quarantined again for at least two weeks.
Among other pleas, our frontliners asked that the facilities of the Ospital ng Maynila and Dr. Fabella Memorial Hospital be decongested. With their overwhelming number of patients, these two public hospitals are metaphors for the entire Philippine health care system.
Being on the ground, our frontliners reported that many of them were getting sick while struggling against fear and anxiety. Burn-out is rampant, with many resigning and discouraged given “the seemingly endless number of patients getting admitted in the hospitals.”
Their resilience is admirable in the face of the Philippines’ struggle against COVID-19.
Five months ago, starting 16 March 2020, there was almost a total Luzon-wide lockdown. As infections gathered momentum, counter-intuitively, restrictions eased rather than stepped up.
For March alone, infections rose from 3 to 2,094. By the end of April, infections stood at 8,488. Closing infection levels for May and June were record-breaking at 18,086 and 37,514 respectively. Yet, the NCR was downgraded from ECQ to GCQ. For July, infections trebled to 93,354.
In making their plea for ECQ, our frontliners respected authority and first sought the Department of Health’s assistance before going public. But the Executive was not quick on the draw.
Against these odds, our frontliners never complained. They never called for the people to revolt. There is a clear case of confusing the people’s overwhelming support of the frontliners for an act of revolt.
The frontliners’ appeal for a timeout is understandable. Our health authorities’ failure to take advantage of the earlier lockdownsagain forces us into restricted movement. Dr Guido David of the UP Institute of Mathematics and member of the UP-OCTA Research affirms that restrictions“can help reduce the spread of the coronavirus disease.”
We continue to maintain that had the strict lockdowns been properly used to implement testing, tracing and treating, the pandemic would have been managed better. A flattening or even easing of the epidemiological curve would have been seen.
Under public pressure, Metro Manila last Monday was reluctantly placed under MECQ from the 4th through the 18thof August. Some monetary benefits are also to be extended to our medical workers. The next day, Tuesday, the 110 k mark was surpassed at 112,593 as 6,352 new cases were added.
What good will a two-week MECQ per se do?
The quick answer in terms of public health is—maybe, not much. As Manila Standard columnist Gary B. Olivar opined, this pandemic “has ground all our pretensions into the dust and laid bare the consequences of decades of neglect in…our healthcare system…” But for our frontliners, it means a lot.
On the economy, the answer is—maybe, not at all. Anything more that is adverse is already anticipated,
In fact, when MECQ was announced, our financial markets as expected turned bearish. Investors sold out of the stock market with the PSEi declining to 5,715.92 or by 212.563 points or 3.59 percent, the worst in the region. The following day, there was modest partial recovery of 59.58 points or 1.04 percent.
A deep recession for the second quarter is almost a foregone conclusion. Two weeks of MECQ for the third quarter will indeed pose some additional weakness both in domestic demand as well as in consumer and business sentiments. But the overall downward trajectory will stay its course.
The early green shoot of manufacturing activity had actually reversed course even before the MECQ. IHS Markit Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined again from its improving signal in June at 49.7 to 48.4, both below the 50-neutral threshold.
Before MECQ, the BSP Governor initially declared that the worstwas over. On MECQ, he said its impact, “would be limited.” Of course, the BSP anticipates higher loan defaults with business failures as possible risks in these pandemic times.
In this regard, we agree with the regulators that it is important for banks to do due diligence especially in credit assessments. They must also report the proper state of the banking system following regulatory forbearance and grace period authorized under the Bayanihan to Heal as One Act.
Transparency is more critical today because without it, markets would always be guessing the true state of banks during this pandemic. Elsewhere and in the Philippines, banks should be allowed to eat into their capital conservation and counter-cyclical buffers. The BSP, being the lender of last resort, should conserve its ammunition.
For the NEDA Secretary, there was an admission that previous quarantine measures have affected the economy in a more severe way than expected.
Until such time that our key major trading partners have shaped up and helped shape up the global economy, there is very little to draw from our external trade in goods and services. COVID-19 has become the ubiquitous downside risk in models and simulations. Both exports and imports continue to contract. Remittances are severely down. Tourism is absent.
The Finance Secretary declared that the lockdown “may take a toll on the drivers of economic rebound in the near term.” But he also wisely pointed out that in the long term, it is only if the lockdown is properly leveraged, that there could be some favorable impact on our economic prospects.
Truly, an MECQ by itself is hardly enough.
It is actually not what our frontliners asked for. By itself, it can do more harm than good as locking down and reopening without a plan will just cause greater contagion.
ING Bank N.V. Manila’s Nicky Mapasaw the big picture when he wrote that “unless the Kryptonite (coronavirus pandemic) is addressed, no amount of alphabet rearrangements to lockdown measures and relaxing of quarantine protocols will jumpstart the recovery.”
One simple mistake will force us to go back to square one. Japan, South Korea, and Singapore learned this the hard way when the virus mounted a second or a third wave of ruthlessness.
Australia is another example. The New York Times reported that Melbourne is now fighting a second wave by imposing the “toughest restrictions in the world to beat (it) back.” Its health authorities are now implementing a “shock and awe” attack on the virus that will last at least six weeks. Australia thought it had won against COVID-19. In June, they realized “that travelers were passing the virus to security guards who carried the contagion into their neighborhoods.”
We will have nothing to lose if we allow ourselves to be guided by the experience of others. The Vietnamese approach of no guesswork can be used for present and future reference. Their experience shows a strategic health plan and well-defined standard of calibrating lockdowns.
Vietnam’s health plan is a whole of society, whole of government approach. Vietnam distinguishes itself from other economies including those from the developed world, by its sustained investment in its health facilities for many years.
Public health expenditure per capita rose by an average rate of 9.0 percent between 2000 and 2016. As a result, its life expectancy climbed. Its infant mortality rate declined and its maternal mortality ratio plummeted. Immunization for various contagious diseases averaged upwards of 95 percent of all infants. After the SARS epidemic, Vietnam invested even more in its public health infrastructure, including developing a national public health emergency operations center and a national public health surveillance system. Testing and contact tracing were pursued with plenty of clues.
At the end of 2019, when they got wind of unusual cases of a pneumonia-like disease stalking Wuhan, they wasted no time. They aggressively imposed travel bans and restrictions given their shared borders with China. They closed schools; stopped public events; and closed all non-essential services. Everybody adhered to the protocols, ordinary mortals and members of the Party elite.
The Vietnamese were single minded, focused and knew what they were doing. In testing, they concentrated on high-risk, dense urban areas and improved contact tracing to granular proportions. The IMF reports that mobile apps are available to about 60 percent of the population to alert them to positive cases and potential exposures in big cities. With the quick results of contact tracing, whole villages were isolated and quarantined using state facilities. Testing was provided free of charge to the residents.
As a result, Vietnam flattened the epidemiological curve the hard but quick way. Positive cases were limited to only 459 as of end-July 2020 with no death. It is no surprise that this hardy nation of over 97 million was one of the first economies to open up. Economic activities resumed as early as April 23 and until recently with the limited resurgence in Danang, are expected to lead to a positive 2.7 percent real GDP growth while its neighbors - the Philippines included - are struggling with deep recessions.
With an excellent story to tell, a transparent and consistent communication plan was also key for the Government to speak with one voice and earn the public’s trust.
Vietnam imposed nationwide or localized lockdowns only when necessary, and eased them when the standards of calibration were satisfied.
IMF’s Era Dabla-Norris and Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf, both from the Asia Pacific Department, concluded that “Vietnam’s approach should allow for a quicker rebound.”
As the Philippines stands, our curve has never once seen a flattening, not even in the slightest....
While it is true the rest of the world continues to battle COVID-19, we are unique in never even being able to claim initial victories. This is because, short of lockdowns, passing out social amelioration ayudas with a large haircut and waiting for a vaccine “to turn the corner,” ... we have never had a workable plan to address the virus itself through strategic testing, tracing and treating. That tracing through gossip-mongers was even considered should indicate the sad state of our public health.
When our frontliners advised that “we are losing battle against COVID-19.” ... what they specifically asked for was for Government “to come up with a consolidated plan.”
It is a plan, and not lockdowns per se that is required. Concerns such as avoidance of even more contagion, better mitigation and more effective management should be conditional propositions by this time.
Yes, community quarantines can destroy business and jobs, and worsen the incidence of poverty. As we take a timeout, we must not waste the lockdown and use it strategically. We also need to learn from our neighbors, and think and act outside the vax.