The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has revised upwards the country’s economic performance for the full year of 2024 to 5.7-percent growth, from the preliminary 5.6-percent figure.
This upward revision still falls short of the government’s downscaled 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of six to 6.5 percent.
For 2025 and 2026, the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has set a more ambitious six- to eight-percent target, citing both local and global uncertainties.
According to the PSA, the increase in full-year 2024 growth could be attributed to the revision in the fourth-quarter figure to 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent, which private-sector economists had described as disappointing.
While the 2024 numbers inched up slightly, the full-year 2023 GDP growth rate was maintained at 5.5 percent.
As for the capacity of the domestic economy to achieve the 2025 target, market expectations lean towards hitting the lower end of the wider range, but it would be a challenge for the economy to accelerate near eight percent.
Meanwhile, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto, President Marcos’ chief economic manager and representative on the Monetary Board (MB), had earlier projected a 75-basis point (bp) reduction in the central bank’s interest rates this year, expecting it to catalyze economic growth to seven percent or higher.
Recto said earlier that a rate cut is likely at the April 10 policy meeting, signaling the resumption of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) easing cycle, which was unexpectedly paused during the first MB policy meeting of the year last February.
BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. also said earlier that a 25-bp cut is “on the table.” If the MB pushes through, this will bring the 5.75-percent key interest rate down to 5.5 percent.
With the economy missing last year’s growth target, Recto had said the anticipated rate cuts could boost growth by at least half a percent.
The PSA updates GDP estimates following an approved revision policy—PSA Board Resolution No. 1, Series of 2017-053—in line with international standards for national accounts revisions.