Amid a Trump-led global trade war looming on the horizon, the Philippines sourced more products from China while it exported more goods to the United States at the start of 2025.
Preliminary Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data on Friday, Feb. 28, showed that the value of the Philippines' exports to the US in January reached $1.13 billion, accounting for 17.7 percent of the $6.36-billion total shipments of Philippine-made merchandise to abroad that month.
PSA data showed that last month's Philippine exports to the US jumped 23.5 percent from $912.8 million in the same month last year. The share also improved from 15.3 percent a year ago.
On the other hand, the Philippines imported a lower $690.8-million worth of goods from the US last January, up 2.6 percent from a year ago's $673.1 million. With a six-percent share of total, the US is the country's fifth-biggest import source, after China, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea.
Two-way trade with the US last month totaled $1.82 billion, with a trade-in-goods surplus, or more exports than imports, enjoyed by the Philippines, amounting to $436.7 million.
The US is the Philippines' third-largest bilateral trade partner in January, behind China and Japan.
US President Donald J. Trump wants to narrow his country's trade deficits with its trading partners by slapping import tariffs, supposedly aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing.
The Philippines' trade with China, meanwhile, is tipped in favor of Beijing, as Manila incurred a trade deficit, or more imports than exports, of a whopping $2.66 billion last January, out of bilateral trade totaling $3.95 billion.
Chinese imports to the Philippines last month surged 24.6 percent to $3.31 billion from $2.65 billion a year ago.
The value of imports from China cornered 28.9 percent of the month's total bill worth $11.45 billion, a higher share than 25.7 percent during the same month last year.
Exports to China are much smaller, which, at $645.6 million in January, grew 2.7 percent from a year ago's $628.4 million.
China ranked only fourth among the Philippines' top export markets that month, behind the US, Japan, and Hong Kong, which is an administrative region also controlled by Beijing.
The Philippines is a net importer of the goods it consumes. In January, the country recorded a trade deficit of $5.09 billion, wider by 16.9 percent than $4.36 billion a year ago.
Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp. economist Patrick Ella told Manila Bulletin on Friday, Feb. 28, that the Philippines may emerge unscathed from escalating trade tensions between the US and China—and even benefit from it.
“What we saw during the last Trump trade war is that China tends to, or at least Chinese companies tend to, move operations out [of the mainland] to Vietnam, and then the Philippines. So, at least we’re already on China’s radar for the China+1 strategy, which means establishing manufacturing bases in other Asian countries besides China. Previously, it was mainly Thailand; but now, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand are already in that conversation,” Ella noted.
Another potential impact of Trump’s trade war 2.0 would be increased trade between the Philippines and its Asian neighbors outside of China, Ella said, citing that “during Trump’s [first] term, our exports to non-China Asian economies grew by more than 50 percent.” (With Derco Rosal)