The International Monetary Fund (IMF) still projects the Philippine economy will grow by 6.1 percent this year and 6.3 percent in 2026 due to disinflation, easing monetary policy, and strong public spending.
The IMF has maintained this growth forecast for the Philippines in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) reports released in October of last year and in the January 2025 update as of Jan. 17.
The IMF also retained its 5.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2024. The Philippine economy grew by 5.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2024.
According to the IMF Article IV Consultation with the Philippines report released last December, growth is expected to accelerate to 6.1 percent this year. Output growth is estimated to be between 6.0 percent and 6.3 percent over the medium term.
These IMF projections are slightly lower than the government's GDP targets of 6.0 percent to 8.0 percent for 2025 and 2026.
The IMF identified several risks to the near-term growth outlook, including ongoing commodity price volatility, new supply shocks, escalating geopolitical tensions, prolonged tight monetary policy in advanced economies, a slowdown in major economies, significant natural disasters or extreme climate events, and stalled reform momentum or lower-than-expected benefits from reforms.
In various reports and assessments, the IMF has noted that growth momentum this year will be supported by more accommodative financial conditions and investment, including declining borrowing costs.
“Growth has been resilient, despite external shocks and an unprecedented tightening in global monetary conditions,” the IMF stated.
For 2024 and 2025, the country's economic growth is expected to remain modest. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to continue managing inflation to within its target range of 2.0 percent to 4.0 percent over the medium term.
Moderating inflation will allow the central bank to cut rates further until monetary policy normalizes. In 2024, the BSP reduced the key policy rate by a combined 75 basis points to 5.75 percent.
The IMF anticipates the domestic economy will continue to be supported by growth in consumption as food prices ease and by an increase in public investment.