Despite high inflation during its first full year in office, the Marcos Jr. administration is expected to buck the regional trend of dissatisfaction with incumbent administrations and is likely to maintain majority control in Congress in the forthcoming midterm elections slated for May, think tanks said.
This would allow continuity in domestic and foreign policies set forth by the current administration, according to economists of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and Fitch Solutions unit BMI.
In their upcoming elections, "votes in Singapore, the Philippines and Hong Kong are unlikely to bring many surprises or political change," said Alex Holmes, EIU regional director for Asia, in a Jan. 6 report obtained by Manila Bulletin.
Holmes noted that "dynastic feuds" would be in focus in the May 12 polls, referring to the families and allies of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio—running mates during the 2022 presidential elections under a platform of "unity" who have now turned into bitter political foes.
In the Philippines, "the election will be a battle of personalities, with the President likely to secure a dominant power base," Holmes said.
In particular, Holmes forecasted that President Marcos Jr. would "retain support in Congress, despite fluid party allegiance and an ongoing feud with his vice president and predecessor," referring to former President Rodrigo R. Duterte.
"As such, we do not expect a major shift in political stability or policy effectiveness," Holmes added.
In a webinar on Tuesday, Jan. 14, BMI Asia country risk analyst Caroline Wong predicted that "anti-establishment sentiment" would likely prevail in most Asian countries holding elections this year.
"Apart from country-specific factors, one common reason is elevated inflation in the last few years, which, in our view, has created voter sentiment that they are less well-off than before," Wong explained.
To recall, the Philippines in 2023—the first full year of the Marcos Jr. administration -- suffered from its highest inflation rate since the global financial crisis 15 years earlier.
The six-percent headline inflation recorded in 2023 was the fastest year-on-year climb in prices of consumer goods and services since 2008's 8.2 percent.
Despite this, Wong said the Philippines' May elections would be an "outlier," as the new alliance between the President's Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP) and Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) party, led by current House Speaker—and the President's cousin—Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez would position their allies "to perform well in the 2025 Senate elections."
Twelve out of the 24 senatorial positions will be up for grabs in May, alongside all the slots for representatives in the Lower House.
"Another tailwind stems from former President Rodrigo Duterte's decision to decide against running for the Senate, but instead picking his son Baste Duterte as his running mate in his campaign to become mayor of Davao”—the city where the Dutertes have had a long-standing political dominance, Wong added.
Asked by Manila Bulletin to elaborate on why the Philippine midterm elections would likely buck the prevailing anti-establishment sentiment in the region, BMI Asia country risk analyst Shi Cheng Low enumerated several reasons, including the government's success in lowering inflation to an average of 3.2 percent last year—within the government's targeted two- to four-percent range of manageable annual price hikes deemed conducive to economic growth.
"I do understand that a lot of [Filipinos] are not very happy with high inflation during President Marcos' term, but he... also managed to rein in inflation relatively quickly, barring a few months when rice prices spiked due to El Niño," Low noted.
"Other than that, inflation is now relatively well-contained," he added.
Low also cited that the President's approval and popularity ratings are sliding at a much slower pace than the Vice President's, who is facing an impeachment complaint in Congress due to alleged irregularities during her previous stint as Department of Education (DepEd) chief.
He added that the recent public outbursts of the Dutertes against the Marcoses "[do] not help with public image."
Another boost to the Marcos Jr. administration is its foreign policy stance asserting Philippine rights against China in their disputed South China Sea territories, which many Filipinos support, based on opinion surveys, Low said.
"So we think that President Marcos has a slight upper hand in terms of the midterm elections. It should help him with a lot of policy continuity going forward," he said.
For 2025, BMI forecasted the Philippine economy to grow by a faster and within-government target rate of 6.3 percent, compared to the below-goal estimate of 5.8 percent in 2024, Low told the webinar.
The government will report on the fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) performance on Jan. 30.
BMI's Philippine GDP growth forecast for this year places the country just behind Vietnam, Bhutan, and India among the anticipated top economic performers in Asia.
Low attributed BMI's rosier 2025 growth projection for the Philippines to a foreseen rebound in private consumption amid easing inflation and lower downward interest rates, as well as an improving labor market.
BMI expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to cut the policy rate by another 75 basis points (bps) this year, to add to the cumulative 75-bp reduction since its easing cycle began in August 2024, bringing the rate to the current 5.75 percent.
However, Low said the Philippines still faces its "biggest risk" from US President-elect Donald J. Trump's tariff plans, since the United States is among the country's top trading partners.
NPA no longer a threat
Gone are the days that the New People’s Army (NPA) could influence the outcome of elections in the country, Philippine Army (PA) Commanding General, Lt. Gen. Roy Galido said on Wednesday, Jan. 15.
Galido said the military has practically defeated NPA, the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) founded by the late Jose Ma. “Joma” Sison in 1969, so it will not be a concern of the military ahead of the May 12 midterm polls.
“Sa kasalukuyang estado ng New People’s Army, ito ay wala ng kakayahan para maimpluwensyahan ang takbo ng nalalapit na halalan ngayong taon (In the current state of the New People’s Army, it does not have the capability to influence the outcome of the upcoming elections this year),” he said.
Despite this, Galido said the Army will not be complacent and remain vigilant against individual attacks that may be launched by remnants of the NPA in the provinces to make it appear they are still capable of overthrowing the government.
“The Philippine Army, particularly our units on the field, will continue to be on guard and conduct internal security operations to ensure that the 2025 national and local elections will be orderly and peaceful,” he stated.
“Wala po tayong let-up na gagawin at patuloy natin tutugisin ang mga natitirang mga lider ng armadong grupo (We will not let-up in our activities and we will continue to hunt down the remaining leaders of this armed group),” he added.
The NPA was notorious for issuing “permits to campaign” to political candidates during the election period. However, the National Security Council (NSC) said this is no longer the situation since the NPA has already been decimated in all its politico-military spectrum capabilities.
Last month, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said only one “weakened” guerilla front of the NPA remains. By weakened, the AFP explained that a particular guerilla front has no leader, but its members can still mount small acts of violence.
The AFP said that the NPA still has around 1,000 fighters but the military urges them to surrender to the government and be reintegrated back into mainstream society.
Checkpoint protocol
As more than a thousand checkpoints were established since the start of the election period on Jan. 12, the Internal Affairs Service of the Philippine National Police (PNP-IAS) reminded policemen to strictly follow the protocol to avoid both legal trouble and public disdain.
PNP-IAS Inspector General Brigido Dulay said the basic protocol is to ensure that the conduct of Commission on Elections (Comelec) checkpoint should safeguard human rights and ensure ethical policing.
"Checkpoints are a critical aspect of our law enforcement operations, but they must be conducted with utmost respect for the rights of the public. Police personnel who disregard established procedures tarnish the reputation of the PNP and will be held accountable,” said Dulay.
The setting up of checkpoints is part of the security measures for the midterm elections on May 12. It is aimed at containing the movement of criminal elements and reinforced the implementation of the nationwide gun ban.
PNP chief Gen. Rommel Francisco Marbil earlier said that he wants at least 1,000 checkpoints daily for the public to feel the election security measures of the police forces across the country.
While calling on the public to be aware of their rights while cooperating with law enforcement officers, Dulay likewise reminded policemen of Marbil’s instruction for all police personnel manning checkpoints to wear body-worn cameras or alternative recording devices.
“This measure aims to protect both the public and police personnel by ensuring transparency and accountability during checkpoint operations,” said Dulay.
Dulay also called on police commanders to lead by example, stressing the need for proper supervision and training.
"Leadership is key in ensuring that our police officers act with professionalism. Commanders must take responsibility for the conduct of their units at all checkpoints," he said.