The ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) has outlined various projections regarding the Philippines' renewable energy (RE) targets for the coming years, comparing them with those of neighboring countries, including insights on nuclear energy plans, employment opportunities, and land use.
During the 8th edition of the ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO8) at the 42nd ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) and associated gatherings, ACE presented multiple forecasts for the RE goals of nations such as the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam.
ACE indicated that the Philippines, along with Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, will require significantly more land for the installation of clean energy infrastructure. By 2050, it is estimated that approximately five million hectares will be needed to expand solar and wind energy capacity.
By that same year, the Philippines is projected to allocate about 12 percent of its land for renewable energy, while Vietnam is anticipated to utilize the most land, with around three million hectares dedicated to green energy. Thailand and Laos are expected to commit nine percent of their land to renewable initiatives.
Furthermore, significant job creation is anticipated in the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia as a result of large-scale renewable energy projects.
Regarding nuclear energy, it is expected to become an integral part of energy strategies by 2035, as the Philippines aims to increase its nuclear energy utilization.
“Reflecting AMS’ Power Development Plans (PDP) and targets, nuclear energy would exist in all scenarios except the baseline scenario (BAS), from 2035 onwards, with the highest supply projected to be around 13.8 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in the AMS target scenario by 2050,” ACE stated.
“This indicates the AMS’ resolute commitment to expanding nuclear energy, especially in the Philippines,” it added.
Previously, Department of Energy (DOE) undersecretary Sharon Garin shared that the agency is aiming to have commercially operational nuclear power plants with a capacity of 1,200 MW by 2032.
Aside from this, the Philippines, along with Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, still needs to achieve a 50 percent clean cooking access rate. These countries need to ensure their citizens have access to clean cooking methods by 2030.
New technologies coming in
Meanwhile, the AEO8 reveals that emerging technologies would begin entering the ASEAN energy mix, as nuclear and tidal and wave in installed capacity are set to work around by 2032 and 2035.
“New fuels in the demand sector include Hydrogen and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which will be introduced in the region’s total final energy consumption (TFEC) by 2023 and 2025,” ACE stated.
The ASEAN region would also have a 39.6 percent RE share in installed power capacity and 31 percent of energy intensity reduction by 2025. Then, by 2030, it would have a 23.5 percent RE in the total primary energy supply (TPES).
“The RE in installed capacity could reach 44.1 percent and the energy intensity reduction could reach 40.2 percent,” it said.
Moreover, the industry and transport sectors still account for ASEAN’s end-use consumption as coal and oil products dominate in these groups.
“The final energy demand is expected to grow 2.6 times from 2022 to 2050,” ACE reported.