Inflation likely further slid to 2.9 percent in September as oil and rice price hikes eased, according to Dutch financial giant ING.
"The Philippines' small decline in rice prices in September and lower transport fuel prices will have been offset by increases in fruits and vegetables and some other prices," ING Asia-Pacific research head Robert Carnell, Greater China chief economist Lynn Song, and Japan and South Korea senior economist Min Joo Kang said in a Sept. 26 report.
ING said that while September's consumer price index (CPI) would have risen by 0.7 percent compared to August levels, the headline rate would be below the seven-month low of 3.3 percent last month.
If ING's September inflation forecast is correct, it shall be the lowest year-on-year rate of increase in prices of basic commodities in eight months, while returning below three percent that was last seen in January's 2.8 percent.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will release September CPI data on Oct. 4, Friday of next week.
Department of Finance (DOF) Secretary Ralph G. Recto projected last Tuesday, Sept. 24, this month's inflation rate to fall to 2.5 percent alongside lower prices of rice and other food products during the Christmas holiday season.
ING said this downward inflation trend "should provide the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) with an excuse for another 25 basis points of rate cuts at its next meeting on Oct. 17."
Recto, who represents President Marcos in the Monetary Board, earlier said the BSP's highest policy-making body may consider cutting rates at their next monetary policy stance meeting as aggressively as the US Federal Reserve's 50 bps last week.
The BSP began its easing cycle last August by cutting the key interest rate by 25 bps to 6.25 percent.