EDITORS DESK
With the onslaught of Super Typhoon Carina on July 24, we witnessed enormous floods, persistent downpours, and challenging rescue operations on news channels and social media. We saw people stranded on top of a bus along Araneta Avenue, several barges colliding with the Caruncho Bridge due to strong currents, and people being swept away by the flood in Montalban Heights, San Jose in Rizal. Carina halted work and classes and even led to the suspension of stock market trading.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) declared Carina (international name: Gaemi) a super typhoon on July 24. In response, the Metro Manila Council placed the National Capital Region in a state of calamity. Carina packed maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts up to 230 kph. In 24 hours, the state weather bureau recorded 323.9 millimeters of rainfall brought by Carina. In 2009, Ondoy bought 455 millimeters of rainfall.
According to PAGASA, Carina did not make landfall in the Philippines. However, even without landfall, the super typhoon caused significant damage to parts of the country. Alongside tropical cyclone Butchoy and the southwest monsoon or “habagat,” Carina affected over 880,000 people and caused ₱203.38 million in agricultural damage, as reported by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council and the Department of Agriculture.
In December 2023, the University of the Philippines (UP) issued a stern warning that the country should “brace for potentially stronger and more destructive typhoons due to climate change.” This conclusion came from research conducted by the UP Diliman College of Science’s Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, led by Dr. Rafaela Jane Delfino, Dr. Gerry Bagtasa, and their colleagues from the United Kingdom.
The study examined three significant super typhoons in recent history: Yolanda (Haiyan) in 2013, Pablo (Bopha) in 2012, and Ompong (Mangkhut) in 2018. Researchers considered several factors, including atmospheric temperature, sea surface temperature, pressure, and relative humidity. They conclusively linked climate change to the intensification of these typhoons.
“Based on our simulations, it is found that the most damaging tropical cyclones like Haiyan, Bopha, and Mangkhut will have higher wind-related damage potential in the future. Tropical cyclones of such intensity and damage potential in the future will have serious implications given the increasing exposure and vulnerability in the Philippines,” the study stated.
The National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (Namria) found that Metro Manila’s sea level rise is three to four times the global average of 3.4 mm/year, resulting in an average rise of 8.4 mm/year from 1901 to 2022. Excessive groundwater extraction, deforestation, and land reclamation have greatly contributed to this sea level rise.
The Climate Change Commission warned, “These projections will result in increased frequency and severity of storm surges, floods, landslides, and droughts, among others.” These changes will significantly impact agriculture, energy, water, infrastructure, and more.
Greenpeace East Asia’s 2021 study projected that the city of Manila could be submerged by 2030 due to sea level rise and coastal flooding. The study noted that Manila Bay’s sea level is rising at 13.24 mm per year, potentially affecting historical landmarks such as Luneta Park, Malacanang Palace, Intramuros, and Binondo.
In addition to government efforts to address these urgent issues, we all must educate ourselves on climate-related issues affecting our daily lives. Rising sea levels and intensified typhoons will continue to impact millions of Filipinos in the future. To know more information on hazard levels in your area, Project NOAH (Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards) of the Department of Science and Technology provides comprehensive data on flood, landslide, and storm surge levels. This platform provides predictive tools to help communities prepare for and respond to natural disasters.
(Rey Robes Ilagan is the editor of Manila Bulletin’s Environment and Sustainability section.)