Philippine BOP surplus shrinks end-November


The country posted a lower balance of payments (BOP) surplus of $2.117 billion as of end-November compared to end-October of $4.393 billion due to government foreign borrowings and reduced trade in services’ net receipts.

Based on the latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) released on Thursday, Dec. 19, the end-November BOP surplus was lower than the previous year’s $3.03 billion.

“The decline in the cumulative BOP surplus was due to lower net receipts from trade in services and net foreign borrowings by the NG (National Government),” said the BSP. “However, this decline was partly muted by the continued net inflows from personal remittances as well as net foreign portfolio and direct investments,” it added.

For the month of November only, the BOP incurred a deficit of $2.276 billion, the highest deficit recorded for 2024 on a monthly basis. This was higher than same time last year of $216 million deficit, and from October 2024’s shortfall of $724 million.

The BSP said Thursday that the BOP deficit in November was on account of the NG net foreign currency withdrawals from its deposits with the BSP. The funds were used to “settle its (NG) foreign currency debt obligations and pay for its various expenditures, and the BSP’s net foreign exchange operations.”

Meanwhile, the BOP deficit had an impact on the country’s US dollar reserves. As of end-November, the final gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to $108.465 billion versus $111.083 billion in end-October.

The BSP said the updated GIR level is still “more than adequate external liquidity buffer” that is equivalent to 7.7 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. It is also equivalent to 4.3 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.

The link between BOP and GIR is that the latter ensures availability of foreign exchange for the required BOP financing especially during times of “extreme conditions when there are no export earnings or foreign loans.”

BOP finances payment of imports and debt service. It is a summary of the economic transactions of a country with the rest of the world for a specific period. A BOP surplus position means there are more exports or inflows than imports or outflows, while a deficit position is the opposite.

Along with the BOP, the BSP releases the final GIR data which it reports twice in month, as preliminary data and final number.

The BSP is poised to release its revised forecasts for the 2024 and 2025 BOP before the year ends.

For now, the BSP expects the BOP surplus will settle at $2.3 billion this year amid sustained funds and capital flows, global growth, increased trade and lower inflation.

Last year, the BOP surplus amounted to $3.672 billion, an improvement from the $7.263 billion deficit in 2022.