It doesn't matter whether former president Donald Trump or incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris triumphed in the US presidential election on Nov. 5 -- a "charismatic" Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. can charm his way to maintain, if not further bolster, already reinvigorated ties between Manila and Washington.
"If I were to advice President Marcos, on the Harris side, I would just continue what we're doing -- in standing up to China in the South China Sea, but also in terms of stepping up in engagement, including in the trilateral between the US, Japan and the Philippines, because that has put the Philippines in a good step," Erin L. Murphy, Asia program senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told a briefing in Mandaluyong City on Monday, Nov. 4.
Last April, these three countries announced they will jointly develop the Luzon Economic Corridor as the first economic corridor of the G7's Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Luzon Economic Corridor will connect Clark and Subic Bay -- ex-US military bases, now freeport zones -- to Manila and Batangas down south of the Philippines' biggest island, in a bid to lure more high-impact infrastructure investments.
Murphy noted that Marcos has been a "pleasant surprise" as he's someone that the US government can work together with.
"For the US, either Harris or Trump -- it is a lot of focus on the domestic issues, kind of like America First. But with the Harris side, [and the current administration of President Joseph] Biden's side -- it's more America First, and friends, and allies," she said.
Harris, if ever she becomes the next US president, wouldn't be hard for Marcos to convince that the Philippines is an ally due to her involvement in Indo-Pacific relations and strong stance on maritime security issues in the region under the Biden administration, she added.
Murphy said it would also help that the Philippines strategically lies in the cross-section of the national security as well as economic security priorities of the US. "The Philippines plays a very important role in supply chains" of the global electronics, food and healthcare sectors, she pointed out.
As for Trump, he would likely look into US-Philippine bilateral trade numbers to see if his country sells more goods than it buys, as he prefers surpluses over deficits with trading partners, Murphy said.
The latest Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data showed that the Philippines sold $9.18-billion worth of products to the US -- its top export destination, accounting for 16.5 percent of total -- as of end-September 2024, while imports from America were a lower $6.14 billion during the first nine months of this year.
The Philippines bought from China over one-fourth of all the merchandise goods it imported from January to September, while only 6.5 percent came from the US, which ranked as sixth-biggest import source, PSA data showed.
While cumulative nine-month Philippine exports to the US grew 7.8 percent year-on-year, imports shrank 2.5 percent.
If ever trade becomes an issue under another Trump administration, Murphy suggested that "Marcos can actually appeal to Trump."
Referring to Marcos, Murphy said "he is charismatic as well, and can talk about the rich history" that the Philippines shares with the US when he engages with Trump.
"It's trying to get ahead of what the economics will play. I'm not saying that the Philippines should go into a trade deficit with the US, because that is not good for the Philippines. But just recognizing where this goes and you have to really play personality politics on a lot of this," according to Murphy.
Gregory B. Poling, senior fellow and director at CSIS's Southeast Asia program and Asia maritime transparency initiative, said that since the Marcos Jr. and Biden administrations fostered a "renaissance in the US-Philippine alliance," there must also be a similar "renaissance in US-Philippine economic relations," which should ultimately benefit the Filipino people.
Poling and CSIS Southeast Asia program associate fellow Japhet Quitzon last Oct. 31 published a report titled "US Investment in the Philippines: More Than Meets the Eye" to correct the "pervasive false narrative in Manila" that "the US does not play a major economic role in the Philippines" and across the Southeast Asian region vis-à-vis China in terms of aid, investment and trade, Poling disclosed.
"We are not denying that China is an important economic partner... But when we really look at the numbers, the only measure on which China is really the leading partner of the Philippines is as an import destination -- the Philippines imports more from China than it does anywhere else. On exports, on investments, on official development assistance -- China is not the most important partner; in many cases, it's not even in the top five," he said.
"When we look around the Philippines -- at long-standing, high-quality investments in key industries that create jobs for Filipino citizens, that capital comes from the United States, Japan, Europe, South Korea, Singapore -- it does not, for the most part -- come from the People's Republic of China," he pointed out.
In the CSIS report, its lead author Quitzon and Poling highlighted American investments benefitting seven Philippine industries: agriculture, critical minerals and electric vehicles (EVs), defense and aerospace manufacturing, information technology and business process management (IT-BPM), logistics and shipping, renewable energy (RE), and semiconductor manufacturing.
To maximize gains from these US investments, the report urged expanding outside the so-called "Imperial Manila" so that benefits trickle down to the countryside.
"Investments in the Philippines remain strongly centered in Luzon, and particularly in and around Metro Manila and its surrounding areas. Business interest in areas such as Cebu and Davao are growing, but Manila remains oversaturated with investment. Moreover, with limited availability and bureaucratic red tape preventing easy access to cheap land, both business owners and potential employees are thus at a disadvantage," the report noted.
As such, the report recommended American firms to spread their investments across the Philippines.
"The unitary nature of the Philippine government and the ongoing narrative of 'Imperial Manila,' that is, that most of the country's progress is concentrated in the capital region, makes this difficult to achieve. Expanding investment projects into emerging regions -- from Iloilo and Cebu in the central Philippines to Davao and its surroundings in the south -- would offer excellent opportunities for Filipinos. The expansion of the IT-BPM sector throughout the Philippines, for instance, helped to more evenly distribute work away from Manila, leading to the development and revitalization of other urban hubs," according to the CSIS report.