Central banks in emerging Asian economies like the Philippines are expected to further lower interest rates despite expectations of slower monetary easing if the protectionist former US president Donald J. Trump returns to the White House, according to two economic think tanks.

In an Oct. 21 report, Capital Economics deputy chief emerging markets economist Shilan Shah and assistant economist Lily Millard noted that while central banks in Europe and Latin America are either pausing or slowing their pace of rate cuts, "Asia will lead the next phase of the emerging-market easing cycle."

The recent interest rate cuts by the central banks of the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand would likely be followed in much of Asia, such as in India, Capital Economics said.

"In general, we think that easing cycles will be smaller and shorter in duration in Asia than elsewhere, and our forecasts are generally on the more dovish side," the think tank said.

Capital Economics cited that monetary authorities in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Central and South America, have "already delivered" most of the rate cuts expected from them during this easing cycle.

In emerging European and Latin American markets, central banks "increased rates sharply in their previous tightening cycles, which allowed them to cut rates relatively early once inflation dropped," Capital Economics pointed out.

"The scope for cuts has now become limited as disinflation has slowed or in some cases reversed" in Europe and Latin America, such that Capital Economics expects interest rates there to "remain above their neutral level through to the end of next year."

However, Capital Economics cautioned that "there is massive uncertainty surrounding the US election, and that includes the impact on emerging markets' monetary policy," especially if Trump wins and reinstates the more protectionist trade policies he espouses.

"Our view is that a victory for Trump would boost the dollar, at least in the immediate aftermath of the election. In that environment, emerging-market interest rates would probably stay higher than we currently anticipate," according to Capital Economics.

Meanwhile, Oxford Economics lead emerging markets economist Tatiana Orlova said in an Oct. 22 report that the Philippines and Mexico were the two major emerging markets with the most hawkish monetary policy, or highest real interest rates, as of September.

This, even as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), in its August and October policy meetings, slashed the key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) in each meeting to the current six percent.

The BSP is widely expected to again reduce the policy rate by another 25 bps in December.

"In the Philippines, Peru, Indonesia, Hungary, and Chile, where the central banks were quite hawkish back in March, inflation was significantly below consensus in the subsequent six months," Oxford Economics noted.

Last September, headline inflation fell to an over four-year low of 1.9 percent in the Philippines—way below consensus expectations, after two years of the consumer price index (CPI) lingering above the BSP's targeted two- to four-percent annual price hikes that had led to the prior monetary policy tightening episode.

"This supports our conjecture that emerging-market central banks' excessive hawkishness will eventually lead to undershooting inflation targets... We found that a more hawkish central bank stance affects inflation via long-run expectations of lower future policy rates," Oxford Economics said.

As such, Oxford Economics said that "in line with our expectations, more central banks in emerging Asian markets are embracing monetary easing, even in those economies where policymakers had reservations about it,” like South Korea and Thailand, with India seen next to cut interest rates.

The think tank also cited the Philippines, India and Malaysia as the top economic performers in emerging Asia, "largely supported by manufacturing."

However, Oxford Economics noted that recent weakening among emerging markets' currencies against the US dollar has become a headwind that "forced some emerging-market central banks to pause their easing cycles."

"The US dollar gained more than three percent versus the broad basket of currencies since the end of September, [as the latest US economic data] suggested that the Fed's easing could be more gradual than the markets expected. The rise in US Treasury yields in October provoked outflows from emerging-market assets, exerting pressure on their currencies," Oxford Economics explained.

Among emerging-market currencies, the Philippine peso experienced one of the biggest depreciations in the month leading to mid-October, just behind the larger fall of the Russian ruble and the Hungarian forint vs. the greenback, Oxford Economics data showed.